Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-01-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-01-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 73 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 5 18 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 3 31 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 11 33 3 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 18 48 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 59 313 5208 30939
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 66 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 5 16 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 2 24 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 1 10 24 1 0 0
CDI 0 19 2 9 21 17 0 0
VCDI 0 3 1 21 96 325 5208 30939

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 71 470 2592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 71 470 2586

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 505 5121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 505 5121

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 18 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 185 1773 3310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 21 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 190 1770 3310

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 62 19 9 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 91 2116 3990
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 116 2125 3982

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2670 3617 58 354 249 39 2 0
OW 0 28 8 124 204 44 8 0
VODI 0 6 1 36 299 72 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 145 170 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 141 260 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 626 2021 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2670 3536 54 366 305 48 2 0
OW 0 106 6 53 180 50 10 0
VODI 0 8 7 80 219 104 14 0
ODI 0 1 0 16 130 106 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 121 172 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 166 731 2009 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5737 3459 15 75 21 0 0 0
OW 0 165 4 19 18 1 0 0
VODI 0 105 13 118 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 35 1 45 65 3 0 0
CDI 0 22 2 20 101 51 0 0
VCDI 0 26 5 55 145 313 986 27
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5737 3239 14 72 25 0 0 0
OW 0 227 2 17 11 1 0 0
VODI 0 167 9 34 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 76 5 65 17 3 0 0
CDI 0 49 3 52 71 25 0 0
VCDI 0 54 7 92 252 339 986 27

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9339 2563 29 78 98 28 0 0
OW 0 99 15 27 43 9 2 0
VODI 0 18 8 44 45 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 35 96 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 36 95 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 4 50 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9339 2589 37 98 141 58 2 0
OW 0 56 7 27 15 27 9 0
VODI 0 32 3 14 45 55 41 0
ODI 0 3 5 20 7 83 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 39 39 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 6 5 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 120 9 47 3 0 0 0
OW 0 8 3 26 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 30 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 60 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 82 30 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 103 956 3126 1064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 104 8 34 15 0 0 0
OW 0 13 2 21 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 2 25 52 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 31 26 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 48 23 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 165 946 3125 1064

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 326 2945 5280
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 26
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 326 2944 5267

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12224 4021 40 119 11 0 0 0
OW 0 99 30 181 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 197 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 217 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 373 73 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 455 1559 350 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12224 3979 45 160 23 0 0 0
OW 0 106 17 132 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 9 150 108 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 97 163 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 268 37 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 631 1589 350 0


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