Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-01-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72248 13881 164 793 393 146 54 0
OW 74 427 50 317 235 87 22 0
VODI 0 244 27 285 335 124 42 0
ODI 0 65 19 223 479 123 42 0
CDI 0 44 9 127 441 316 114 0
VCDI 0 14 6 96 933 3703 8839 3559
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72778 13342 145 676 415 136 69 0
OW 74 442 55 349 216 55 49 0
VODI 0 192 37 392 306 112 52 0
ODI 0 51 12 207 370 186 54 0
CDI 0 11 5 121 650 357 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 877 3181 9300 3712
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72508 13585 167 664 228 88 22 0
OW 75 396 56 436 172 44 21 0
VODI 0 115 24 397 409 89 33 0
ODI 0 27 8 214 479 142 44 0
CDI 0 7 3 98 817 388 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 635 4135 7912 4458
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71611 14104 156 656 285 119 0 0
OW 76 443 64 439 217 40 15 0
VODI 0 152 33 479 333 110 24 0
ODI 0 49 9 252 496 179 41 0
CDI 0 17 6 170 691 344 105 0
VCDI 0 3 2 75 687 3628 8147 4843
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71611 14103 156 680 302 124 3 0
OW 76 427 67 435 216 36 19 0
VODI 0 159 28 475 336 108 21 0
ODI 0 53 9 244 478 202 29 0
CDI 0 21 8 163 684 316 105 0
VCDI 0 5 2 74 693 3634 8155 4843

Date: 2020-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71803 13864 163 657 276 74 0 0
OW 60 515 66 449 221 50 0 0
VODI 0 231 22 461 354 84 4 0
ODI 0 78 24 261 418 166 27 0
CDI 0 26 6 140 644 325 160 0
VCDI 0 31 2 156 1335 3554 8272 4121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71803 13837 169 681 291 84 0 0
OW 60 515 62 428 194 50 0 0
VODI 0 242 23 469 364 85 7 0
ODI 0 86 19 224 424 167 40 0
CDI 0 37 7 137 654 300 126 0
VCDI 0 28 3 185 1321 3567 8290 4121

Date: 2020-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71747 13860 155 670 366 67 2 0
OW 76 443 65 395 326 53 10 0
VODI 0 158 28 456 570 88 8 0
ODI 0 49 4 160 537 251 45 0
CDI 0 25 2 56 735 467 151 0
VCDI 0 26 5 59 692 2875 8527 4891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71763 13520 162 730 493 106 4 0
OW 60 539 39 265 278 77 19 0
VODI 0 279 32 327 430 164 55 0
ODI 0 98 13 239 350 208 122 0
CDI 0 68 5 118 545 275 83 0
VCDI 0 57 8 117 1130 2971 8460 4891

Date: 2020-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71727 13827 158 596 353 159 12 0
OW 60 440 66 425 236 116 20 0
VODI 0 136 38 378 476 233 40 0
ODI 0 49 7 142 418 252 143 0
CDI 0 44 4 76 487 381 241 0
VCDI 0 12 2 76 593 2696 8637 5344
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71727 13437 160 634 473 256 16 0
OW 60 599 38 298 190 141 40 0
VODI 0 298 45 301 342 232 156 0
ODI 0 92 20 225 352 229 175 0
CDI 0 56 8 124 455 272 154 0
VCDI 0 26 4 111 751 2707 8552 5344

Date: 2020-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71489 13764 164 610 285 27 0 0
OW 62 437 66 477 344 62 0 0
VODI 0 151 37 400 591 200 15 0
ODI 0 42 7 191 535 236 130 0
CDI 0 21 4 73 623 561 154 0
VCDI 0 11 6 63 724 2827 8386 5325
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71491 13659 172 758 371 64 3 0
OW 60 391 57 419 384 86 10 0
VODI 0 229 27 269 592 203 102 0
ODI 0 79 14 172 457 221 127 0
CDI 0 44 4 99 581 465 85 0
VCDI 0 24 10 97 717 2874 8358 5325


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