Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74858 13409 132 449 222 123 73 0
OW 71 690 45 348 111 26 17 0
VODI 0 429 33 414 226 57 9 0
ODI 0 248 13 194 309 95 13 0
CDI 0 190 16 193 442 368 78 11
VCDI 0 178 21 285 1539 7475 23266 60372
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74791 12850 156 584 238 127 71 0
OW 73 657 55 345 117 31 26 0
VODI 0 383 34 371 279 96 36 0
ODI 0 168 10 196 292 230 38 0
CDI 0 116 13 115 435 507 215 40
VCDI 0 149 16 262 1193 6412 27148 58173
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73481 13636 168 805 310 104 34 0
OW 73 472 60 323 283 62 20 0
VODI 0 279 24 305 439 104 27 0
ODI 0 80 23 155 468 188 50 0
CDI 0 51 7 117 517 674 305 40
VCDI 0 55 7 140 1088 5993 28958 57123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72452 13892 175 773 393 113 51 0
OW 74 426 53 338 272 87 16 0
VODI 0 205 34 434 397 166 41 0
ODI 0 86 15 231 448 215 46 0
CDI 0 45 8 112 566 636 199 14
VCDI 0 23 11 149 922 7525 27640 57765
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72452 13919 182 791 424 126 54 0
OW 74 406 44 340 240 88 16 0
VODI 0 190 37 431 421 155 49 0
ODI 0 90 14 216 413 217 63 0
CDI 0 47 8 119 527 603 181 20
VCDI 0 25 11 140 973 7553 27630 57759

Date: 2020-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72254 13867 163 767 450 170 56 0
OW 74 443 53 341 235 85 32 0
VODI 0 222 33 379 318 125 48 0
ODI 0 57 17 226 426 179 99 0
CDI 0 29 5 116 655 592 246 35
VCDI 0 6 2 120 1095 6174 31036 55818
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72254 13934 170 791 477 196 68 0
OW 74 378 46 341 231 70 38 0
VODI 0 208 34 357 316 140 51 0
ODI 0 56 14 222 415 168 126 0
CDI 0 37 6 115 634 593 220 30
VCDI 0 11 3 123 1106 6158 31014 55823

Date: 2020-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72680 13673 156 624 218 86 21 0
OW 74 355 75 559 199 42 27 0
VODI 0 93 22 526 487 76 39 0
ODI 0 14 7 167 824 201 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 865 853 182 29
VCDI 0 0 0 8 542 5775 27578 59841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72680 13425 151 714 370 141 125 0
OW 74 412 50 392 232 49 32 0
VODI 0 208 34 402 311 122 55 0
ODI 0 66 14 218 485 174 92 0
CDI 0 23 9 135 779 603 149 19
VCDI 0 1 2 93 958 5944 27454 59851

Date: 2020-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72388 13619 151 662 281 75 10 0
OW 76 391 70 412 233 57 3 0
VODI 0 112 27 463 405 102 18 0
ODI 0 33 3 219 464 211 33 0
CDI 0 7 5 119 810 427 202 84
VCDI 0 0 0 99 1046 6946 25573 61212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72388 13332 152 679 462 149 76 0
OW 76 429 48 400 177 98 38 0
VODI 0 263 28 356 293 177 41 0
ODI 0 101 15 194 361 165 61 0
CDI 0 35 11 161 676 383 157 88
VCDI 0 2 2 184 1270 6846 25466 61208

Date: 2020-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71946 13906 147 526 270 119 12 0
OW 76 532 72 442 205 43 18 0
VODI 0 255 38 455 353 115 25 0
ODI 0 102 16 292 438 154 79 0
CDI 0 42 8 187 692 397 265 95
VCDI 0 15 2 253 1463 5815 22497 64681
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71962 13566 136 528 394 188 115 0
OW 60 587 53 339 207 98 30 0
VODI 0 358 51 406 206 144 81 0
ODI 0 157 23 290 301 97 73 0
CDI 0 95 7 193 588 238 79 84
VCDI 0 89 13 399 1725 5878 22518 64692


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