Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76901 11869 130 518 300 211 1 0
OW 72 438 56 243 150 59 30 0
VODI 0 256 34 302 264 86 24 0
ODI 0 109 16 269 402 145 31 0
CDI 0 46 12 207 544 490 114 46
VCDI 0 33 8 206 1488 7462 29771 53705
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75710 12687 126 614 302 203 25 0
OW 71 503 54 182 119 44 16 0
VODI 0 304 39 317 208 78 31 0
ODI 0 156 17 259 308 128 48 0
CDI 0 96 5 281 551 465 69 65
VCDI 0 142 20 254 1275 6472 26660 58144
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75901 12940 181 486 268 169 12 0
OW 71 384 40 315 105 50 16 0
VODI 0 227 20 331 247 48 37 0
ODI 0 135 11 164 328 105 58 0
CDI 0 104 4 145 546 437 257 18
VCDI 0 122 20 179 911 5389 26013 60254
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75512 13250 139 423 206 130 52 0
OW 71 608 58 338 108 31 9 0
VODI 0 377 29 342 275 49 10 0
ODI 0 232 16 177 347 87 19 0
CDI 0 125 7 154 442 437 149 28
VCDI 0 130 19 220 1306 6467 23262 61407
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75512 13219 144 450 209 134 52 0
OW 71 597 52 307 108 29 12 0
VODI 0 376 27 337 257 53 10 0
ODI 0 244 17 164 332 104 22 0
CDI 0 138 7 156 413 437 157 37
VCDI 0 148 21 240 1365 6444 23248 61398

Date: 2020-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75101 12923 136 507 235 133 57 0
OW 72 725 42 317 124 18 18 0
VODI 0 395 34 343 283 37 25 0
ODI 0 189 17 221 324 124 21 0
CDI 0 137 10 176 466 387 165 8
VCDI 0 162 19 254 1205 7216 26667 57755
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75101 12966 135 528 241 136 62 0
OW 72 651 42 290 121 27 20 0
VODI 0 370 30 321 269 34 20 0
ODI 0 199 18 215 306 133 24 0
CDI 0 151 14 173 462 406 182 15
VCDI 0 194 19 291 1238 7179 26645 57748

Date: 2020-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73835 13735 157 720 229 92 49 0
OW 72 553 56 385 252 56 14 0
VODI 0 267 34 355 488 97 24 0
ODI 0 88 14 147 544 287 33 0
CDI 0 65 11 132 565 734 237 57
VCDI 0 42 7 115 1034 5980 27502 57984
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73834 13346 150 677 294 152 83 0
OW 73 543 47 291 162 44 13 0
VODI 0 448 25 284 318 106 28 0
ODI 0 182 20 193 330 163 61 0
CDI 0 100 18 130 521 492 220 75
VCDI 0 131 19 279 1487 6289 27454 57966

Date: 2020-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73203 13510 172 802 334 117 44 0
OW 75 437 45 324 261 81 19 0
VODI 0 296 30 351 418 132 47 0
ODI 0 80 21 176 416 201 55 0
CDI 0 47 6 119 497 611 292 2
VCDI 0 61 11 139 778 6096 27328 59414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73200 13150 164 773 396 203 95 0
OW 78 495 32 247 232 64 29 0
VODI 0 364 30 277 309 135 47 0
ODI 0 219 25 189 337 137 88 0
CDI 0 77 19 213 397 488 220 27
VCDI 0 126 15 212 1033 6211 27306 59389

Date: 2020-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72248 13949 167 795 393 146 54 0
OW 74 441 58 337 240 87 22 0
VODI 0 247 29 331 348 145 44 0
ODI 0 65 19 246 528 197 49 0
CDI 0 44 9 143 513 589 245 33
VCDI 0 14 6 153 1172 7921 29464 55483
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72248 13560 161 788 484 238 109 0
OW 74 515 42 270 218 89 34 0
VODI 0 325 37 317 301 149 36 0
ODI 0 152 14 267 371 210 50 0
CDI 0 89 21 149 515 437 161 29
VCDI 0 119 13 214 1305 7962 29488 55487


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