Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-01-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76451 12828 119 384 184 150 66 0
OW 86 479 62 290 123 24 5 0
VODI 6 212 40 359 295 36 0 0
ODI 2 16 8 209 352 73 4 0
CDI 0 0 3 54 508 289 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 436 2857 6584 5469
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76395 12995 116 373 122 136 95 0
OW 71 499 60 308 78 22 12 0
VODI 0 243 22 334 212 30 6 0
ODI 0 64 7 180 312 41 7 0
CDI 0 0 3 99 457 214 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 438 2483 7898 4716
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76157 12933 143 443 229 129 39 0
OW 71 321 36 320 95 50 20 0
VODI 0 165 24 320 253 48 22 0
ODI 0 25 8 151 376 73 22 0
CDI 0 2 3 68 546 337 15 4
VCDI 0 0 0 9 487 3179 7312 4665
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75974 12755 116 495 277 177 4 0
OW 75 392 61 237 129 40 28 0
VODI 0 212 25 335 197 67 22 0
ODI 0 52 14 166 274 102 22 0
CDI 0 15 6 124 352 211 29 0
VCDI 0 1 0 93 680 3720 8041 3580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75974 12733 122 510 295 196 10 0
OW 75 398 58 230 126 27 19 0
VODI 0 217 22 318 192 70 21 0
ODI 0 56 14 171 278 93 25 0
CDI 0 20 6 126 343 205 28 0
VCDI 0 3 0 95 675 3726 8043 3580

Date: 2020-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76326 12099 114 530 283 196 3 0
OW 72 414 47 226 127 53 23 0
VODI 0 234 39 313 175 88 30 0
ODI 0 65 10 186 252 94 46 0
CDI 0 32 1 93 415 146 51 0
VCDI 0 23 6 63 610 3254 8553 3808
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76326 12082 121 528 290 214 12 0
OW 72 404 41 232 119 43 13 0
VODI 0 253 38 282 188 82 24 0
ODI 0 69 9 191 242 85 40 0
CDI 0 26 2 109 382 165 57 0
VCDI 0 33 6 69 641 3242 8560 3808

Date: 2020-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76132 12339 132 543 276 162 11 0
OW 71 374 40 290 141 51 7 0
VODI 0 216 25 244 231 75 15 0
ODI 0 67 13 197 295 112 25 0
CDI 0 30 1 111 384 280 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 504 2715 8197 4687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76132 11988 126 535 309 179 33 0
OW 71 432 29 187 92 44 8 0
VODI 0 296 28 227 152 70 24 0
ODI 0 139 12 153 228 88 41 0
CDI 0 95 10 148 290 161 51 0
VCDI 0 76 6 168 760 2853 8172 4687

Date: 2020-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75906 12794 165 503 239 105 28 0
OW 71 409 38 289 119 46 5 0
VODI 0 255 18 230 219 78 7 0
ODI 0 126 15 117 259 99 31 0
CDI 0 68 6 151 416 238 108 0
VCDI 0 23 9 134 738 3600 7829 3609
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75905 12320 132 461 220 132 44 0
OW 72 595 50 205 103 23 13 0
VODI 0 402 25 233 179 51 30 0
ODI 0 196 19 162 182 54 40 0
CDI 0 103 16 160 352 180 47 0
VCDI 0 59 9 203 954 3726 7834 3609

Date: 2020-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74858 13279 127 434 222 123 73 0
OW 71 646 38 301 101 26 17 0
VODI 0 370 33 299 186 57 9 0
ODI 0 204 13 169 227 60 13 0
CDI 0 140 16 186 328 178 49 0
VCDI 0 43 6 220 1169 4434 7334 3041
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74856 13031 126 475 245 134 101 0
OW 73 776 32 239 102 37 6 0
VODI 0 452 35 306 197 82 18 0
ODI 0 212 17 196 218 59 24 0
CDI 0 139 12 132 334 147 47 0
VCDI 0 72 11 261 1137 4419 7299 3041


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