Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76451 13031 120 385 187 150 66 0 OW 86 518 65 353 177 24 5 0 VODI 6 249 43 490 411 37 0 0 ODI 2 56 11 250 495 142 34 0 CDI 0 39 8 108 814 922 106 32 VCDI 0 0 0 44 641 6986 25518 57986	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76395 13169 124 407 122 136 95 0 OW 71 552 60 328 99 22 12 0 VODI 0 306 24 436 297 30 6 0 ODI 0 88 16 293 432 43 7 0 CDI 0 19 4 157 736 405 68 62 VCDI 0 15 0 62 875 6091 28670 56314	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-31:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76157 13178 158 477 232 129 39 0 OW 71 353 38 353 117 50 20 0 VODI 0 246 35 425 394 48 22 0 ODI 0 59 13 199 538 115 22 0 CDI 0 21 5 124 758 959 59 51 VCDI 0 28 3 59 894 7474 28954 54171	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75974 12978 125 520 277 177 4 0 OW 75 416 67 270 135 40 28 0 VODI 0 230 26 409 256 67 22 0 ODI 0 92 22 275 435 148 23 0 CDI 0 29 9 219 526 514 119 53 VCDI 0 6 2 146 1355 7675 29421 53883	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75974 12964 132 543 295 196 10 0 OW 75 415 64 260 142 27 19 0 VODI 0 235 23 403 266 70 21 0 ODI 0 90 21 265 427 140 26 0 CDI 0 38 8 194 551 562 132 56 VCDI 0 9 3 174 1303 7626 29409 53880

Date: 2020-01-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76326 12253 122 570 283 196 3 0 OW 72 473 54 242 138 53 23 0 VODI 0 276 41 339 241 88 30 0 ODI 0 94 16 258 425 116 47 0 CDI 0 53 7 172 687 475 114 52 VCDI 0 33 14 150 1198 6417 29065 55832	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76326 12262 130 565 291 214 12 0 OW 72 447 47 254 138 43 13 0 VODI 0 293 40 310 273 82 24 0 ODI 0 94 15 267 415 129 41 0 CDI 0 44 9 175 616 480 125 49 VCDI 0 42 13 160 1239 6397 29067 55835

Date: 2020-01-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76132 12550 142 582 276 162 11 0 OW 71 425 44 357 148 51 7 0 VODI 0 257 25 368 262 77 15 0 ODI 0 105 14 300 374 170 25 0 CDI 0 121 9 207 648 593 111 25 VCDI 0 82 8 78 868 6113 26584 58651	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76132 12158 132 578 313 179 33 0 OW 71 491 35 226 101 44 8 0 VODI 0 345 30 306 174 99 24 0 ODI 0 177 12 229 270 148 42 0 CDI 0 139 11 218 379 429 95 16 VCDI 0 230 22 335 1339 6267 26551 58660

Date: 2020-01-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75906 12939 175 542 242 105 28 0 OW 71 437 48 320 146 46 5 0 VODI 0 294 19 259 321 78 7 0 ODI 0 151 17 119 361 104 31 0 CDI 0 105 6 156 477 451 158 50 VCDI 0 97 17 183 1007 6022 24733 60815	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75905 12423 139 490 238 132 44 0 OW 72 630 58 230 133 23 13 0 VODI 0 439 31 268 268 65 30 0 ODI 0 226 19 170 268 83 40 0 CDI 0 142 17 165 416 360 132 40 VCDI 0 163 18 256 1231 6143 24703 60825

Date: 2020-01-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74858 13409 132 449 222 123 73 0 OW 71 690 45 348 111 26 17 0 VODI 0 429 33 414 226 57 9 0 ODI 0 248 13 194 309 95 13 0 CDI 0 190 16 193 442 368 78 11 VCDI 0 178 21 285 1539 7475 23266 60372	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74856 13116 129 489 245 134 101 0 OW 73 811 35 283 102 37 6 0 VODI 0 514 37 333 198 82 18 0 ODI 0 268 21 280 257 62 24 0 CDI 0 181 12 169 438 225 61 30 VCDI 0 254 26 329 1609 7604 23246 60353

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