Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-12-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77265 13528 128 510 416 131 16 0
OW 62 819 69 575 415 41 0 0
VODI 0 314 54 589 930 214 2 0
ODI 0 111 18 266 663 611 15 0
CDI 0 90 9 116 776 1239 162 0
VCDI 0 10 5 83 712 5752 25417 54915
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77418 12427 132 489 246 220 33 0
OW 68 722 55 351 234 154 0 0
VODI 0 486 61 509 725 425 2 0
ODI 0 157 18 275 625 555 46 0
CDI 0 66 9 104 752 1250 240 5
VCDI 0 14 7 138 788 5834 24141 57267
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76719 13263 151 676 257 205 43 0
OW 65 506 77 373 278 118 11 0
VODI 0 138 51 504 568 191 11 0
ODI 0 52 1 195 829 444 48 0
CDI 0 12 4 49 843 1255 397 11
VCDI 0 0 0 24 406 5155 23738 59380
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75882 13619 149 511 193 187 71 0
OW 74 446 75 454 191 7 15 0
VODI 0 234 37 477 430 59 68 0
ODI 0 57 16 204 635 241 74 0
CDI 0 37 1 73 698 1204 155 5
VCDI 0 1 1 56 459 5481 23943 60528
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75883 13601 145 510 194 187 82 0
OW 73 434 78 414 172 6 4 0
VODI 0 256 34 487 413 56 67 0
ODI 0 56 20 213 584 221 78 0
CDI 0 44 1 83 745 1084 183 4
VCDI 0 3 1 68 498 5625 23912 60529

Date: 2019-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76576 13021 128 370 142 145 86 0
OW 81 528 58 308 140 25 14 0
VODI 4 299 36 432 367 30 6 0
ODI 1 90 17 250 436 64 8 0
CDI 0 43 7 148 714 592 33 40
VCDI 0 16 1 74 829 6794 25784 58311
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76574 13023 128 356 152 150 86 0
OW 82 487 52 301 104 20 15 0
VODI 5 312 39 415 345 31 8 0
ODI 1 108 14 253 458 57 4 0
CDI 0 43 13 150 662 533 42 44
VCDI 0 24 1 107 907 6859 25776 58307

Date: 2019-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75868 13842 152 454 186 120 52 0
OW 71 397 53 412 124 23 43 0
VODI 0 163 41 555 394 30 25 0
ODI 0 40 10 233 557 83 17 0
CDI 0 33 6 113 1051 852 145 90
VCDI 0 23 1 53 763 6098 25952 57923
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75867 13310 116 395 199 144 117 0
OW 71 582 52 261 89 30 23 0
VODI 1 354 51 399 190 42 6 0
ODI 0 149 24 374 354 102 2 0
CDI 0 53 12 234 723 490 55 100
VCDI 0 50 8 157 1520 6398 26031 57913

Date: 2020-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75570 13463 151 495 229 134 37 0
OW 71 366 45 329 138 44 19 0
VODI 0 236 36 397 336 59 21 0
ODI 0 76 17 260 488 131 24 0
CDI 0 19 8 195 711 575 92 22
VCDI 0 13 2 78 1118 8168 29905 52970
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75557 13004 114 419 222 170 68 0
OW 84 550 60 249 132 39 31 0
VODI 0 318 45 338 271 64 6 0
ODI 0 218 21 313 338 118 6 0
CDI 0 62 9 266 638 576 107 21
VCDI 0 21 10 169 1419 8144 29880 52971

Date: 2020-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76901 11869 130 518 300 211 1 0
OW 72 438 56 243 150 59 30 0
VODI 0 256 34 302 264 86 24 0
ODI 0 109 16 269 402 145 31 0
CDI 0 46 12 207 544 490 114 46
VCDI 0 33 8 206 1488 7462 29771 53705
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76801 11369 138 589 373 251 48 0
OW 157 484 38 247 169 63 41 0
VODI 15 358 31 190 294 120 22 0
ODI 0 191 21 170 290 160 20 0
CDI 0 184 12 217 448 537 152 38
VCDI 0 165 16 332 1574 7322 29688 53713


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