Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-12-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-23

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 109 0 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 4 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 29 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 10 17 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 8 25 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 47 490 5243 30866
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 91 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 2 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 2 30 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 15 13 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 9 23 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 57 488 5243 30866

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 316 2816
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 316 2816

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 1062 8823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 1068 8841

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 28 51 0 0
OW 0 15 4 41 143 92 0 0
VODI 0 22 0 51 179 230 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 16 211 540 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 729 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 797 1763 513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 16 70 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 45 66 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 25 155 272 0 0
ODI 0 25 1 29 174 313 18 0
CDI 0 6 2 37 157 440 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 61 1278 1878 513

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 71 909 6266
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 69 909 6266

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 53 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 1 0 4 5 0 0
ODI 0 21 3 3 5 59 12 0
CDI 0 8 2 9 8 36 97 3
VCDI 0 0 1 31 76 221 3592 1954
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 0 0 6 7 0 0
ODI 0 42 0 0 2 50 13 0
CDI 0 22 6 10 1 40 84 10
VCDI 0 0 1 33 84 224 3604 1947

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4197 4000 48 240 67 0 0 0
OW 0 132 19 127 43 7 0 0
VODI 0 35 7 92 105 18 1 0
ODI 0 26 1 8 98 49 7 0
CDI 0 5 4 5 59 116 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 31 300 1456 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4197 3889 52 262 80 1 0 0
OW 0 138 3 76 46 6 0 0
VODI 0 91 17 72 70 18 0 0
ODI 0 55 2 45 75 32 5 0
CDI 0 25 2 12 61 107 9 0
VCDI 0 0 3 21 71 326 1462 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5013 3507 33 117 21 0 0 0
OW 0 75 13 100 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 5 134 47 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 116 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 196 40 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 569 1557 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5013 3395 29 115 25 0 0 0
OW 0 137 9 52 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 9 115 20 2 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 66 61 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 128 29 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 179 580 1549 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9471 2543 18 81 118 165 55 0
OW 0 89 14 30 7 9 7 0
VODI 0 10 4 50 21 11 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 48 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 60 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9471 2558 20 98 132 180 65 0
OW 0 55 3 7 19 19 0 0
VODI 0 25 11 26 13 23 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 29 14 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 64 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 87 13 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 853 28 115 18 0 0 0
OW 0 14 0 57 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 22 85 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 87 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 66 94 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1175 3064 12
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 842 18 41 4 0 0 0
OW 0 25 8 68 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 67 49 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 66 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 95 41 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 88 1246 3064 12

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 60 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 256 34 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 129 367 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 36 780 4423 2383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 36 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 132 11 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 142 250 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 176 919 4343 2383

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16842 1761 23 45 1 0 0 0
OW 0 146 29 154 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 6 136 195 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 134 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 280 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 230 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16833 1493 11 27 7 0 0 0
OW 9 166 21 104 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 250 21 141 120 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 5 78 143 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 158 166 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 385 1 0


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