Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-12-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1639 62 491 185 3 0 0
OW 0 452 31 269 287 68 0 0
VODI 0 232 39 397 504 317 0 0
ODI 0 66 1 98 504 661 44 0
CDI 0 29 9 51 278 1404 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 66 556 4618 13004 19236
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 900 61 533 198 7 0 0
OW 0 354 28 285 339 69 0 0
VODI 0 233 34 228 421 342 0 0
ODI 0 48 15 229 491 455 24 0
CDI 0 52 3 26 349 1171 202 12
VCDI 0 42 8 22 457 3806 13831 20591
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 996 29 428 305 20 0 0
OW 0 278 23 152 418 55 0 0
VODI 0 117 21 244 467 230 0 0
ODI 0 67 4 72 491 484 0 0
CDI 0 64 9 12 336 882 66 11
VCDI 0 2 0 7 442 3381 12833 22920
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 626 5 127 209 0 0 0
OW 0 353 17 154 449 26 0 0
VODI 0 85 22 184 553 178 0 0
ODI 0 53 7 59 443 355 14 0
CDI 0 50 7 28 469 607 90 1
VCDI 0 0 0 5 304 3177 12421 24788
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 764 8 173 269 8 0 0
OW 0 226 15 126 423 32 0 0
VODI 0 75 21 158 489 165 0 0
ODI 0 51 7 68 434 329 19 0
CDI 0 51 7 28 503 628 118 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 309 3181 12388 24788

Date: 2019-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 87 3 35 83 13 0 0
OW 0 246 13 160 199 68 0 0
VODI 0 220 26 317 394 266 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 151 336 405 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 350 855 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 448 4070 12344 24577
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 186 6 79 133 19 0 0
OW 0 200 12 141 153 81 0 0
VODI 0 155 18 285 376 250 0 0
ODI 0 20 9 144 326 336 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 102 351 902 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 471 4089 12325 24577

Date: 2019-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 137 5 26 28 51 0 0
OW 0 112 15 106 166 92 0 0
VODI 0 37 4 169 323 232 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 29 527 574 62 4
CDI 0 0 0 3 196 1118 226 14
VCDI 0 0 0 3 38 2126 11568 27873
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 16 0 17 22 70 0 0
OW 0 91 6 67 71 66 0 0
VODI 0 135 14 111 242 275 0 0
ODI 0 38 4 84 342 324 43 0
CDI 0 6 2 39 362 708 204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 239 2750 11609 27891

Date: 2019-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 1 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 9 141 38 42 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 115 132 131 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 314 209 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 360 643 254 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 2794 12229 28202
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 38 33 18 0 0
VODI 0 20 9 145 93 142 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 103 162 129 120 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 288 551 195 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 365 2979 12228 28204

Date: 2019-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 52 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 120 108 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 125 62 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 281 578 76 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 3860 14978 25425
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 48 102 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 119 112 77 132 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 168 406 359 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 264 4014 14593 25426


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