Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-12-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79233 13262 187 1065 577 106 31 0
OW 63 917 65 513 571 126 12 0
VODI 2 431 63 687 1131 490 10 0
ODI 0 149 17 256 776 955 78 0
CDI 0 53 18 195 510 1805 476 26
VCDI 0 0 0 151 1161 7836 26928 46116
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78262 13136 189 1025 560 210 0 0
OW 72 909 72 515 577 133 0 0
VODI 2 492 59 497 879 506 0 0
ODI 0 132 26 422 1064 717 32 0
CDI 0 87 8 152 692 1605 290 30
VCDI 0 65 14 144 1080 5666 26749 49978
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77758 14282 193 1040 666 167 36 0
OW 61 592 63 428 703 86 6 0
VODI 0 224 40 475 988 300 5 0
ODI 0 110 8 185 869 681 4 0
CDI 0 90 12 58 747 1320 90 17
VCDI 0 18 4 60 788 5210 24069 54595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78426 12903 128 581 509 130 17 0
OW 70 679 73 498 651 52 0 0
VODI 3 220 50 535 964 257 1 0
ODI 0 110 13 201 747 625 19 0
CDI 0 85 9 103 798 1089 150 7
VCDI 0 18 2 83 735 5327 24535 55645
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78423 13013 135 657 582 143 17 0
OW 74 565 61 406 605 53 0 0
VODI 2 228 54 512 893 229 0 0
ODI 0 106 14 245 746 575 22 0
CDI 0 84 9 99 847 1045 175 9
VCDI 0 19 2 82 731 5435 24508 55643

Date: 2019-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77176 13084 118 442 318 157 17 0
OW 63 836 72 407 296 93 0 0
VODI 0 474 72 729 685 303 3 0
ODI 0 94 15 354 711 514 17 0
CDI 0 52 4 168 839 1219 160 27
VCDI 0 11 2 135 1053 6813 24229 55286
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77176 13189 125 486 373 169 17 0
OW 63 763 64 388 247 98 0 0
VODI 0 433 65 669 653 283 1 0
ODI 0 114 24 376 710 427 19 0
CDI 0 43 1 192 876 1279 177 26
VCDI 0 9 4 124 1043 6843 24212 55287

Date: 2019-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77331 12853 150 602 253 216 55 0
OW 63 544 83 520 367 108 7 0
VODI 0 151 23 516 700 278 4 0
ODI 0 49 7 128 972 786 81 4
CDI 0 13 7 25 631 1739 348 17
VCDI 0 0 1 53 239 4767 23398 58959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77320 12331 130 543 264 251 65 0
OW 74 573 46 319 194 91 0 0
VODI 0 496 65 476 469 326 0 0
ODI 0 157 15 280 680 451 61 0
CDI 0 53 11 129 829 1099 317 10
VCDI 0 0 4 97 726 5676 23450 58970

Date: 2019-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75987 13661 165 636 236 194 54 0
OW 68 489 61 471 191 52 9 0
VODI 0 209 53 483 432 168 8 0
ODI 0 39 4 230 748 286 67 0
CDI 0 24 1 64 919 1024 292 15
VCDI 0 0 0 25 501 5619 24383 59180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75979 13190 138 607 275 208 64 0
OW 76 545 61 306 168 35 0 0
VODI 0 429 58 429 332 192 14 0
ODI 0 187 17 322 510 193 120 0
CDI 0 69 9 153 808 829 224 11
VCDI 0 2 1 92 934 5886 24391 59184

Date: 2019-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76451 13031 120 385 187 150 66 0
OW 86 518 65 353 177 24 5 0
VODI 6 249 43 490 411 37 0 0
ODI 2 56 11 250 495 142 34 0
CDI 0 39 8 108 814 922 106 32
VCDI 0 0 0 44 641 6986 25518 57986
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76427 12585 119 393 312 202 68 0
OW 105 598 46 208 151 82 5 0
VODI 11 371 43 336 290 101 45 0
ODI 2 256 22 329 334 178 189 0
CDI 0 76 14 296 680 656 468 10
VCDI 0 7 3 68 958 7042 24954 58008


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