Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-12-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81230 11340 93 568 303 135 0 0
OW 53 350 25 244 159 105 0 0
VODI 0 182 32 171 237 112 28 0
ODI 0 37 22 189 170 143 33 0
CDI 0 8 5 141 228 257 67 0
VCDI 0 2 3 64 757 3477 6405 1725
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79811 11740 116 484 527 164 0 0
OW 50 341 24 145 369 88 0 0
VODI 0 166 28 168 287 225 4 0
ODI 0 37 11 156 123 204 34 0
CDI 0 3 3 123 261 288 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 520 3382 7517 1595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78733 12502 125 701 363 98 0 0
OW 53 294 42 418 337 73 0 0
VODI 2 73 18 222 300 174 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 115 167 217 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 274 341 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 314 2821 7736 2467
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79837 10926 115 504 359 99 17 0
OW 57 399 20 264 375 66 6 0
VODI 2 151 27 219 418 160 0 0
ODI 0 42 8 133 202 208 2 0
CDI 0 17 5 85 232 294 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 480 2615 7596 3090
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79837 10922 117 581 442 100 16 0
OW 58 408 18 188 360 58 7 0
VODI 1 148 31 221 365 159 0 0
ODI 0 45 5 136 180 221 2 0
CDI 0 12 4 88 229 294 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 490 2610 7594 3090

Date: 2019-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78320 11885 138 592 381 163 26 0
OW 72 456 28 223 228 69 0 0
VODI 2 198 14 258 469 149 0 0
ODI 0 70 14 136 451 176 0 0
CDI 0 10 10 105 223 296 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 470 2119 8097 3102
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78321 11905 139 622 405 170 26 0
OW 71 427 27 187 213 53 0 0
VODI 2 214 14 251 390 135 0 0
ODI 0 67 15 149 509 203 3 0
CDI 0 6 9 106 228 288 79 0
VCDI 0 0 0 76 477 2123 8088 3102

Date: 2019-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78249 12374 136 582 315 113 30 0
OW 74 273 42 314 279 27 4 0
VODI 2 68 12 257 521 79 2 0
ODI 0 30 3 83 415 200 1 0
CDI 0 23 3 42 278 381 36 0
VCDI 0 10 5 53 251 1417 7763 4353
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78259 11988 125 536 383 162 35 0
OW 65 386 32 194 156 68 4 0
VODI 1 256 19 262 282 137 15 0
ODI 0 67 15 129 497 149 51 0
CDI 0 41 2 113 379 215 96 0
VCDI 0 40 8 97 362 1486 7635 4353

Date: 2019-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77819 12727 123 491 310 134 25 0
OW 61 322 39 272 188 24 2 0
VODI 0 103 39 280 315 59 0 0
ODI 0 42 4 115 312 145 5 0
CDI 0 24 2 56 293 329 8 0
VCDI 0 36 4 69 368 1710 6787 5458
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77799 12471 138 611 384 177 27 0
OW 81 408 29 194 181 59 6 0
VODI 0 211 23 190 315 127 13 0
ODI 0 69 13 97 316 218 33 0
CDI 0 38 3 98 218 289 87 0
VCDI 0 57 5 93 372 1531 6661 5458

Date: 2019-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77265 12863 121 414 285 131 16 0
OW 62 392 47 307 132 22 0 0
VODI 0 125 29 326 302 64 2 0
ODI 0 39 5 138 317 107 6 0
CDI 0 20 3 45 450 328 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 338 1617 7346 5368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77234 12641 147 650 396 164 18 0
OW 92 393 22 209 220 61 12 0
VODI 1 282 16 156 339 142 22 0
ODI 0 64 13 113 278 204 43 0
CDI 0 40 5 75 247 325 88 0
VCDI 0 19 2 79 344 1373 7203 5368


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