Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-12-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81712 16295 177 936 399 291 12 0
OW 56 834 70 1084 801 481 31 0
VODI 0 336 35 408 1447 578 63 0
ODI 0 127 34 237 657 667 178 0
CDI 0 51 9 183 492 979 478 37
VCDI 0 13 10 172 1107 7611 22948 45012
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79893 15473 201 816 640 180 0 0
OW 50 1087 79 641 946 393 5 0
VODI 0 318 51 533 909 1543 144 0
ODI 0 99 16 259 693 911 158 0
CDI 0 42 12 169 601 913 409 6
VCDI 0 2 3 89 830 8228 28645 41061
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78778 15890 232 1354 507 98 0 0
OW 59 722 84 925 716 92 0 0
VODI 2 185 33 625 1177 533 0 0
ODI 0 46 11 197 903 1075 31 0
CDI 0 21 10 142 730 2560 211 13
VCDI 0 0 0 35 597 9219 28102 41133
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79837 13374 184 971 567 99 17 0
OW 57 1040 56 587 733 162 6 0
VODI 2 441 50 566 1055 508 0 0
ODI 0 124 15 223 796 1138 44 0
CDI 0 53 19 190 624 1912 471 2
VCDI 0 0 3 183 959 8268 27503 44209
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79837 13466 190 1083 711 120 16 0
OW 58 924 50 448 645 147 7 0
VODI 1 463 53 579 927 475 0 0
ODI 0 125 12 241 743 1045 44 0
CDI 0 54 20 202 722 2064 477 4
VCDI 0 0 2 167 986 8236 27497 44207

Date: 2019-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78320 13468 211 1108 578 167 26 0
OW 72 875 65 513 583 120 0 0
VODI 2 407 56 674 975 589 0 0
ODI 0 145 23 272 975 796 27 0
CDI 0 66 15 153 540 1681 470 22
VCDI 0 15 8 111 1115 6539 27121 48145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78321 13544 213 1174 694 189 26 0
OW 71 803 65 430 483 105 0 0
VODI 2 397 54 657 797 545 0 0
ODI 0 148 24 304 1031 765 26 0
CDI 0 61 13 166 648 1654 423 22
VCDI 0 23 9 100 1113 6634 27169 48145

Date: 2019-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78249 13777 196 1077 511 132 30 0
OW 74 624 84 740 703 83 4 0
VODI 2 199 42 674 1074 437 2 0
ODI 0 88 10 176 883 929 22 0
CDI 0 76 7 77 644 1871 273 30
VCDI 0 17 10 60 514 4422 25645 52580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78259 13033 165 1033 807 258 35 0
OW 65 773 48 392 376 174 4 0
VODI 1 547 71 561 545 417 17 0
ODI 0 194 35 397 834 636 71 0
CDI 0 125 14 273 773 1321 281 55
VCDI 0 109 16 148 994 5068 25568 52555

Date: 2019-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77819 13898 149 795 524 145 25 0
OW 61 645 63 552 713 72 2 0
VODI 0 221 63 511 930 194 0 0
ODI 0 116 10 194 963 453 19 0
CDI 0 84 11 106 886 1126 77 1
VCDI 0 36 4 74 939 5670 22521 56376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77799 13320 152 884 809 256 27 0
OW 81 740 42 336 600 130 6 0
VODI 0 457 54 417 661 244 13 0
ODI 0 211 25 287 757 496 46 0
CDI 0 157 14 183 918 962 383 55
VCDI 0 115 13 125 1210 5572 22169 56322

Date: 2019-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77265 13528 128 510 416 131 16 0
OW 62 819 69 575 415 41 0 0
VODI 0 314 54 589 930 214 2 0
ODI 0 111 18 266 663 611 15 0
CDI 0 90 9 116 776 1239 162 0
VCDI 0 10 5 83 712 5752 25417 54915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77234 13017 152 791 527 164 18 0
OW 92 721 28 359 521 104 12 0
VODI 1 560 28 305 839 407 22 0
ODI 0 218 30 238 486 589 47 0
CDI 0 238 31 226 602 999 374 50
VCDI 0 118 14 220 937 5725 25139 54865


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