Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-12-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81656 11510 105 595 466 94 0 0
OW 33 159 24 221 166 35 0 0
VODI 0 57 21 195 189 74 0 0
ODI 0 4 6 110 187 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 241 244 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 320 2795 7365 2097
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81693 11331 88 525 271 120 0 0
OW 35 274 28 238 174 44 0 0
VODI 0 117 22 202 215 58 0 0
ODI 0 26 9 127 229 38 0 0
CDI 0 10 3 70 295 135 2 0
VCDI 0 11 4 59 514 3004 7627 1502
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82106 10900 94 481 370 26 0 0
OW 39 144 38 243 218 36 0 0
VODI 2 20 21 266 290 92 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 89 305 209 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 348 239 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 222 2854 7692 1710
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81516 11201 77 603 292 106 0 0
OW 39 314 20 236 229 45 0 0
VODI 2 162 29 157 247 110 1 0
ODI 0 23 15 188 217 151 3 0
CDI 0 4 3 138 257 266 46 0
VCDI 0 1 0 22 717 3410 4907 3346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81515 11234 77 646 326 92 0 0
OW 40 290 17 195 223 62 0 0
VODI 2 157 32 162 245 118 2 0
ODI 0 19 16 184 201 153 5 0
CDI 0 5 2 133 273 277 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 691 3386 4903 3346

Date: 2019-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80712 11367 100 559 327 143 0 0
OW 52 358 18 269 188 98 0 0
VODI 0 197 31 144 264 185 12 0
ODI 0 58 20 159 159 170 30 0
CDI 0 6 3 137 234 301 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 84 793 3499 6884 1471
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80712 11400 99 662 358 141 0 0
OW 52 321 18 179 186 109 0 0
VODI 0 193 33 142 266 188 10 0
ODI 0 60 17 141 148 184 34 0
CDI 0 12 4 144 240 292 61 0
VCDI 0 0 1 84 767 3482 6889 1471

Date: 2019-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79007 12471 137 770 370 104 0 0
OW 53 300 32 363 314 93 0 0
VODI 2 51 24 258 261 239 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 123 189 267 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 335 400 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 248 3278 7737 1582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79009 12261 126 808 341 128 0 0
OW 53 317 24 222 253 44 0 0
VODI 0 192 30 215 280 206 0 0
ODI 0 48 7 144 131 228 19 0
CDI 0 6 6 117 254 302 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 458 3473 7721 1582

Date: 2019-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78628 12245 122 599 373 103 20 0
OW 53 303 36 381 405 82 3 0
VODI 2 120 21 222 370 173 0 0
ODI 0 34 2 104 198 221 4 0
CDI 0 8 2 72 229 306 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 358 2199 7717 3343
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78629 12061 121 646 525 158 23 0
OW 54 335 34 250 304 86 0 0
VODI 0 147 15 253 291 184 0 0
ODI 0 64 8 113 201 271 7 0
CDI 0 55 2 49 226 291 43 0
VCDI 0 48 3 86 386 2094 7694 3343

Date: 2019-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79233 11228 123 571 392 103 31 0
OW 63 414 25 215 269 58 12 0
VODI 2 162 21 271 542 119 3 0
ODI 0 59 12 138 234 220 4 0
CDI 0 11 3 105 204 321 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 62 526 2762 7658 2900
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79236 10870 131 692 508 125 36 0
OW 62 446 11 130 305 70 10 0
VODI 0 251 17 159 405 208 0 0
ODI 0 135 6 119 186 222 14 0
CDI 0 88 9 86 230 293 37 0
VCDI 0 84 10 176 533 2665 7635 2900


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