Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2019-12-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 501 17 135 81 90 6 0
OW 0 14 6 35 102 79 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 110 102 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 102 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 85 368 9 56
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 1148 6771 22048
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10 609 14 66 29 23 10 0
OW 0 80 13 98 22 6 17 0
VODI 0 9 1 86 94 21 13 0
ODI 0 2 0 10 116 38 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 131 117 26 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 99 1342 5064 23896
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53 621 20 152 44 15 0 0
OW 0 94 5 84 50 21 0 0
VODI 0 58 5 38 138 28 6 0
ODI 0 31 0 27 155 100 12 0
CDI 0 15 5 35 140 224 14 30
VCDI 0 1 1 41 201 1132 6617 21869
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77 409 9 99 69 15 0 0
OW 0 70 7 104 77 23 3 0
VODI 0 99 1 45 142 25 6 0
ODI 0 59 6 7 69 133 15 0
CDI 0 49 2 27 27 299 97 35
VCDI 0 39 8 97 198 1111 7419 21105
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77 423 12 121 61 11 0 0
OW 0 68 4 86 103 22 2 0
VODI 0 96 3 42 128 42 5 0
ODI 0 56 4 6 59 130 12 0
CDI 0 44 2 24 30 314 114 27
VCDI 0 38 8 100 201 1087 7407 21113

Date: 2019-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 34 305 0 1 2 1 0 0
OW 0 96 9 17 20 99 35 0
VODI 0 59 0 15 60 131 44 0
ODI 0 49 5 9 24 76 70 0
CDI 0 35 3 30 12 115 213 14
VCDI 0 7 5 82 303 2434 8914 18754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 34 303 1 0 4 19 0 0
OW 0 88 7 10 14 114 23 0
VODI 0 60 1 24 51 120 61 0
ODI 0 50 5 9 31 38 83 0
CDI 0 40 3 27 17 146 173 6
VCDI 0 10 5 84 304 2419 8936 18762

Date: 2019-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14 431 11 22 2 0 0 0
OW 0 40 9 62 41 3 0 0
VODI 0 28 3 37 117 119 2 0
ODI 0 9 4 12 46 122 34 0
CDI 0 0 1 31 66 327 145 4
VCDI 0 0 0 6 77 897 9778 19582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14 268 0 7 1 0 0 0
OW 0 80 5 27 32 28 2 0
VODI 0 88 14 51 60 97 42 0
ODI 0 34 2 30 64 64 26 0
CDI 0 29 3 7 49 156 108 7
VCDI 0 9 4 48 143 1123 9781 19579

Date: 2019-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 440 11 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 48 8 75 13 13 0 0
VODI 0 46 4 30 89 77 0 0
ODI 0 33 3 22 71 87 8 0
CDI 0 20 7 30 101 283 97 2
VCDI 0 3 3 15 41 1380 7801 21200
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 282 4 16 2 0 0 0
OW 0 62 8 52 35 35 0 0
VODI 0 113 6 43 73 93 25 0
ODI 0 46 4 15 59 77 32 0
CDI 0 36 1 5 26 193 46 4
VCDI 0 51 13 62 120 1442 7803 21198

Date: 2019-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 395 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 51 9 29 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 3 19 85 54 7 0
ODI 0 24 4 20 38 74 30 0
CDI 0 13 6 39 28 80 187 26
VCDI 0 0 0 23 79 456 6266 23980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 269 9 20 3 0 0 0
OW 0 33 0 14 52 16 0 0
VODI 0 90 1 12 60 88 46 0
ODI 0 62 1 2 22 74 80 0
CDI 0 32 5 13 4 66 141 48
VCDI 0 34 8 72 104 420 6223 23958


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