Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-12-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2202 7466 92 356 15 21 0 0
OW 7 647 45 442 144 37 8 0
VODI 0 288 22 281 456 73 32 0
ODI 0 28 12 173 553 134 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 666 568 84 24
VCDI 0 0 0 22 689 4157 9412 16604
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1975 6522 75 467 73 7 0 0
OW 12 742 61 498 230 44 0 0
VODI 0 255 31 363 443 148 0 0
ODI 0 72 3 191 558 281 8 0
CDI 0 2 0 102 448 747 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 320 3862 9529 17745
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1223 6356 105 617 263 48 0 0
OW 17 420 51 503 531 114 0 0
VODI 0 223 20 200 558 264 3 0
ODI 0 44 4 56 402 389 46 0
CDI 0 27 4 60 220 827 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 192 2822 11229 17827
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 669 5284 89 394 404 36 0 0
OW 32 361 48 651 706 101 0 0
VODI 6 79 10 285 721 377 2 0
ODI 0 21 0 121 298 460 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 237 576 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 159 3317 10025 20201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 686 5418 90 520 614 62 0 0
OW 21 229 41 526 612 110 0 0
VODI 0 74 16 285 615 408 2 0
ODI 0 24 0 123 285 419 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 257 612 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 142 3256 10036 20201

Date: 2019-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 165 3882 86 395 87 18 0 0
OW 2 654 50 581 516 404 120 0
VODI 0 81 6 222 717 666 321 0
ODI 0 33 5 31 523 316 197 0
CDI 0 4 3 17 247 506 322 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 2762 9463 22372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 165 3954 105 570 199 135 54 0
OW 2 594 33 421 426 422 188 0
VODI 0 75 4 211 688 556 226 0
ODI 0 26 4 35 531 308 169 0
CDI 0 5 4 9 246 495 253 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 2756 9533 22372

Date: 2019-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51 3357 102 568 190 0 0 0
OW 0 281 28 448 395 7 0 0
VODI 0 76 26 367 811 209 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 40 577 1780 19 0
CDI 0 2 1 18 281 1580 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 155 3158 9696 21415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50 2999 72 365 240 6 0 0
OW 1 605 61 534 425 85 0 0
VODI 0 85 20 371 607 1313 0 0
ODI 0 24 3 105 448 917 20 0
CDI 0 12 4 44 329 720 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 360 3693 9823 21415

Date: 2019-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 2523 77 472 105 3 0 0
OW 0 571 47 406 401 52 0 0
VODI 0 150 18 282 563 331 0 0
ODI 0 29 8 87 616 865 24 0
CDI 0 4 1 53 335 1602 217 10
VCDI 0 0 0 39 340 5107 12118 18407
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 2110 45 307 75 29 0 0
OW 2 766 48 324 404 141 0 0
VODI 0 322 39 428 694 815 0 0
ODI 0 65 12 132 433 1337 67 0
CDI 0 13 7 74 335 1112 256 0
VCDI 0 1 0 74 419 4526 12036 18417

Date: 2019-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1639 62 491 185 3 0 0
OW 0 452 31 269 287 68 0 0
VODI 0 232 39 397 504 317 0 0
ODI 0 66 1 98 504 661 44 0
CDI 0 29 9 51 278 1404 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 66 556 4618 13004 19236
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1321 37 288 124 23 0 0
OW 0 694 46 310 194 145 14 0
VODI 0 277 47 492 660 794 150 0
ODI 0 72 4 124 437 1083 203 0
CDI 0 51 6 23 242 1314 448 0
VCDI 0 3 2 135 657 3712 12498 19236


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