Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-12-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83858 19477 214 1086 562 205 6 0
OW 40 820 75 698 412 151 8 0
VODI 0 345 43 511 755 249 32 0
ODI 0 32 18 284 842 312 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 992 1180 93 80
VCDI 0 0 0 25 1090 8100 23548 40749
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83678 18462 177 1058 373 150 10 0
OW 47 1096 102 834 426 94 17 0
VODI 0 381 54 651 752 227 13 0
ODI 0 100 12 328 903 357 17 0
CDI 0 12 3 179 874 999 52 2
VCDI 0 11 4 89 933 8208 22220 43143
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83382 17877 219 1250 677 89 0 0
OW 56 658 94 830 799 171 0 0
VODI 2 301 46 504 986 384 9 0
ODI 0 76 5 172 862 698 63 0
CDI 0 42 9 112 708 1290 232 30
VCDI 0 1 1 46 615 6808 25538 41406
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82262 16894 175 1096 765 157 0 0
OW 71 745 75 991 1012 169 3 0
VODI 8 340 40 487 1110 512 9 0
ODI 0 103 21 316 584 744 69 0
CDI 0 53 5 179 521 1141 274 35
VCDI 0 40 8 119 1074 7838 22351 44652
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82278 17075 179 1287 1001 165 0 0
OW 61 587 62 807 938 194 2 0
VODI 2 327 51 489 988 568 9 0
ODI 0 99 20 313 545 702 58 0
CDI 0 49 4 168 560 1203 291 27
VCDI 0 38 8 124 1034 7729 22346 44660

Date: 2019-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80911 15554 186 955 416 162 0 0
OW 54 1108 77 867 724 601 155 0
VODI 0 337 37 381 1041 982 377 0
ODI 0 140 30 199 706 562 297 0
CDI 0 45 9 184 493 922 603 14
VCDI 0 7 5 166 1188 8695 25261 42597
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80911 15657 205 1232 561 295 54 0
OW 54 1003 58 610 626 645 211 0
VODI 0 328 38 377 1005 864 297 0
ODI 0 136 26 185 710 530 286 0
CDI 0 57 11 180 503 933 487 6
VCDI 0 10 6 168 1163 8657 25358 42605

Date: 2019-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79072 16259 250 1360 562 104 0 0
OW 53 621 69 873 750 103 0 0
VODI 2 155 53 662 1189 567 2 0
ODI 0 20 7 175 812 2169 59 0
CDI 0 2 2 83 682 2307 409 4
VCDI 0 0 0 8 480 7333 27211 42579
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79073 15528 198 1180 582 134 0 0
OW 54 1002 90 783 710 157 2 0
VODI 0 365 64 637 947 1616 42 0
ODI 0 106 12 279 643 1209 65 0
CDI 0 47 13 168 632 1178 247 7
VCDI 0 9 4 114 961 8289 27325 42576

Date: 2019-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78631 15208 210 1092 478 106 20 0
OW 53 922 91 862 819 147 3 0
VODI 2 316 43 534 1022 581 0 0
ODI 0 96 13 213 885 1173 36 0
CDI 0 32 10 155 665 2191 337 12
VCDI 0 3 3 73 739 8686 27636 42950
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78630 14453 170 969 602 187 23 0
OW 56 1163 90 626 743 262 0 0
VODI 0 582 60 724 1058 1092 25 0
ODI 0 175 24 260 693 1685 106 0
CDI 0 104 10 128 587 1596 345 4
VCDI 0 100 16 222 925 8062 27533 42958

Date: 2019-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79233 13262 187 1065 577 106 31 0
OW 63 917 65 513 571 126 12 0
VODI 2 431 63 687 1131 490 10 0
ODI 0 149 17 256 776 955 78 0
CDI 0 53 18 195 510 1805 476 26
VCDI 0 0 0 151 1161 7836 26928 46116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79236 12460 177 1000 635 148 36 0
OW 62 1173 57 454 551 231 24 0
VODI 0 618 65 663 1125 1090 196 0
ODI 0 269 11 245 645 1379 297 0
CDI 0 171 20 122 476 1673 626 48
VCDI 0 121 20 383 1294 6797 26356 46094


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