Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-11-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 105 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 3 5 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 2 26 64 11 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 12 102 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 96 209 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 2395 12151 21573
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 79 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 4 12 32 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 27 106 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 84 103 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 2529 12151 21573

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 304 1148 1679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 304 1149 1679

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 20 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 17 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 46 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 647 2983 6218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 19 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 66 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 640 2983 6218

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15 3118 47 324 34 0 0 0
OW 0 111 35 342 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 108 275 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 145 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 223 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 234 332 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15 2801 33 269 5 0 0 0
OW 0 334 29 298 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 15 151 188 24 0 0
ODI 0 16 7 44 146 61 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 167 59 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 45 426 310 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 24 4 0 11
VCDI 0 0 0 4 53 101 1161 5753
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 14 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 20 2 0 14
VCDI 0 0 0 51 90 103 1161 5750

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5325

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 369 10 68 22 10 0 0
OW 0 93 7 56 24 15 3 0
VODI 0 36 0 52 86 19 14 0
ODI 0 8 9 20 149 62 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 115 286 50 4
VCDI 0 0 0 1 99 829 2635 1120
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 330 13 41 27 24 4 0
OW 0 91 3 51 8 8 13 0
VODI 0 61 1 62 32 16 18 0
ODI 0 23 6 24 98 32 17 0
CDI 0 1 3 37 125 121 29 3
VCDI 0 0 0 12 205 1020 2651 1121

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6142 3133 30 108 13 0 0 0
OW 0 70 9 123 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 4 72 138 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 111 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 79 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 37 807 221 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6142 3037 20 44 1 0 0 0
OW 0 125 13 130 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 6 90 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 42 103 17 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 27 102 37 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 86 855 221 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4932 3302 16 48 2 0 0 0
OW 0 65 16 93 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 9 104 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 109 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 121 64 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 1125 1430 20
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4932 3274 23 64 8 0 0 0
OW 0 68 7 77 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 7 64 72 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 42 73 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 100 67 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 158 1113 1430 20

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10583 1809 16 53 178 73 0 0
OW 0 24 8 19 16 6 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 31 31 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 32 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 41 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10583 1797 18 61 189 76 0 0
OW 0 26 5 10 15 7 0 0
VODI 0 12 4 20 23 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 15 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 41 23 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 27 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 157 1965 25 203 81 10 0 0
OW 0 42 13 95 91 43 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 63 182 117 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 93 179 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 45 211 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 524 1453 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 157 1955 28 223 143 68 0 0
OW 0 28 5 92 80 94 4 0
VODI 0 21 4 18 127 94 24 0
ODI 0 4 4 14 69 90 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 34 154 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 115 584 1458 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 745 3787 57 258 133 5 0 0
OW 3 379 21 259 311 50 0 0
VODI 0 92 6 66 272 163 0 0
ODI 0 22 3 21 134 321 19 0
CDI 0 3 0 5 79 567 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 442 219 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 748 3705 70 386 353 56 0 0
OW 0 158 5 96 131 88 0 0
VODI 0 170 3 67 115 133 0 0
ODI 0 131 5 32 137 165 1 0
CDI 0 79 3 16 114 386 74 0
VCDI 0 40 1 12 129 720 258 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19056 1100 1 7 0 0 0 0
OW 11 1 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 1 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 5 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19047 1095 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 19 6 1 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 8 1 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 6 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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