Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2019-11-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19 1045 21 280 106 44 0 0
OW 0 151 23 139 113 58 0 0
VODI 0 36 15 233 261 159 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 324 371 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 182 630 24 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 1151 7881 18683
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7 1006 21 199 143 0 0 0
OW 0 66 14 118 135 2 0 0
VODI 0 72 18 249 256 42 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 93 266 255 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 171 554 47 69
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 1165 7178 19882
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 861 18 166 125 45 0 0
OW 0 57 16 108 67 23 0 0
VODI 0 21 8 178 187 65 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 73 243 185 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 124 499 266 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1087 8213 19409
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 611 23 125 81 84 0 0
OW 0 23 7 71 101 37 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 81 119 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 158 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 126 478 35 50
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 1440 7348 20826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 622 26 135 87 87 0 0
OW 0 11 5 82 93 37 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 67 120 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 179 115 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 161 456 32 44
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1476 7350 20832

Date: 2019-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 526 17 112 65 39 0 0
OW 0 37 8 113 48 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 59 137 50 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 139 51 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 133 133 20 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 68 1298 5742 23225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 534 19 128 60 42 0 0
OW 0 28 5 110 45 20 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 46 144 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 148 49 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 135 112 17 26
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 1321 5745 23234

Date: 2019-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 45 680 17 87 22 10 0 0
OW 0 121 11 83 24 15 3 0
VODI 0 37 1 73 103 19 14 0
ODI 0 8 9 26 164 62 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 132 287 50 18
VCDI 0 0 0 1 114 1063 5032 23691
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 45 597 13 41 27 24 4 0
OW 0 141 10 63 8 8 13 0
VODI 0 83 4 97 39 16 18 0
ODI 0 24 8 43 113 32 17 0
CDI 0 1 3 44 139 122 29 18
VCDI 0 0 0 12 233 1254 5048 23691

Date: 2019-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61 486 13 151 92 11 0 0
OW 0 81 4 88 78 22 0 0
VODI 0 82 6 37 124 48 3 0
ODI 0 38 4 24 77 139 35 0
CDI 0 37 3 29 84 258 73 25
VCDI 0 18 6 72 172 1108 7884 20609
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61 354 8 73 52 34 0 0
OW 0 149 10 151 68 16 3 0
VODI 0 124 1 46 145 23 14 0
ODI 0 44 6 11 80 111 47 0
CDI 0 33 3 25 82 249 58 46
VCDI 0 38 8 95 200 1153 7873 20588

Date: 2019-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56 365 2 4 9 25 12 0
OW 0 63 6 46 46 128 31 0
VODI 0 80 0 11 70 115 23 0
ODI 0 64 5 6 38 93 63 0
CDI 0 43 4 35 9 168 229 37
VCDI 0 11 7 108 251 1473 7529 20817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56 231 1 2 6 5 36 0
OW 0 106 7 38 54 96 26 0
VODI 0 143 0 21 57 126 35 0
ODI 0 87 1 4 41 112 35 0
CDI 0 44 7 24 8 151 220 53
VCDI 0 15 8 121 257 1512 7535 20801


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