Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-11-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 89320 17597 208 1164 899 385 0 0 OW 53 591 82 643 638 412 13 0 VODI 2 140 34 581 1037 660 53 0 ODI 0 19 9 212 1010 1108 102 0 CDI 0 5 2 83 592 2209 310 46 VCDI 0 0 0 1 212 4940 23166 38510	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 88137 17751 194 994 651 67 2 0 OW 60 728 68 676 682 361 12 0 VODI 3 229 52 643 891 715 54 0 ODI 0 41 11 226 910 1053 58 0 CDI 0 5 2 129 862 1730 276 78 VCDI 0 0 0 14 430 7675 24915 35663	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 86719 18654 205 1275 644 151 0 0 OW 54 481 82 673 566 170 2 0 VODI 1 96 40 515 1126 447 39 0 ODI 0 4 4 148 1016 825 81 0 CDI 0 0 0 44 569 1888 632 13 VCDI 0 0 0 2 258 5577 24448 39599	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85148 19154 201 1047 586 188 0 0 OW 62 702 73 618 456 141 1 0 VODI 3 220 32 588 816 213 22 0 ODI 0 26 13 213 879 418 43 0 CDI 0 0 0 93 1065 1572 148 67 VCDI 0 0 0 2 761 6993 23796 40688	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85161 19224 226 1139 671 187 0 0 OW 49 614 43 592 459 125 3 0 VODI 3 241 37 528 771 219 19 0 ODI 0 23 13 220 889 374 27 0 CDI 0 0 0 78 1048 1499 111 60 VCDI 0 0 0 4 725 7121 23850 40695

Date: 2019-11-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83865 18913 218 1094 346 138 0 0 OW 43 956 102 880 417 67 0 0 VODI 0 260 37 603 930 183 0 0 ODI 0 65 10 282 994 300 8 0 CDI 0 2 5 154 1000 886 37 35 VCDI 0 0 0 24 971 8556 22462 42205	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83863 18994 249 1264 395 145 0 0 OW 45 810 76 797 410 70 0 0 VODI 0 284 32 536 953 195 0 0 ODI 0 100 10 264 960 306 8 0 CDI 0 8 5 144 959 792 30 26 VCDI 0 0 0 32 981 8622 22469 42214

Date: 2019-12-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83458 18691 203 1070 476 98 0 0 OW 46 814 112 1008 661 115 3 0 VODI 0 164 30 550 1148 359 14 0 ODI 0 39 15 192 912 764 55 0 CDI 0 3 0 83 651 1718 256 18 VCDI 0 0 0 7 482 7414 23733 41686	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83449 18073 205 1091 738 224 4 0 OW 54 868 68 763 370 197 17 0 VODI 1 444 45 484 729 281 42 0 ODI 0 200 33 257 760 426 45 0 CDI 0 86 8 210 793 1019 181 18 VCDI 0 40 1 105 940 8321 23772 41686

Date: 2019-12-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83494 16844 156 1057 765 122 0 0 OW 83 830 93 766 782 242 0 0 VODI 13 290 51 611 859 521 20 0 ODI 3 73 12 340 599 646 89 0 CDI 0 37 4 143 728 1172 323 25 VCDI 0 18 6 88 781 6956 26119 41287	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83402 16300 141 1044 992 372 0 0 OW 135 1024 83 688 584 311 11 0 VODI 43 437 43 504 772 441 50 0 ODI 8 152 31 255 558 504 191 0 CDI 5 100 9 205 554 867 283 46 VCDI 0 79 15 309 1054 7164 26016 41266

Date: 2019-12-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 81712 16295 177 936 399 291 12 0 OW 56 834 70 1084 801 481 31 0 VODI 0 336 35 408 1447 578 63 0 ODI 0 127 34 237 657 667 178 0 CDI 0 51 9 183 492 979 478 37 VCDI 0 13 10 172 1107 7611 22948 45012	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 81710 15399 160 1199 964 574 36 0 OW 58 1162 58 615 846 561 65 0 VODI 0 660 45 464 952 667 165 0 ODI 0 281 22 230 406 533 229 0 CDI 0 133 33 191 366 754 514 57 VCDI 0 21 17 321 1369 7518 22701 44992

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