Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-11-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90612 20529 231 1162 827 81 5 0
OW 81 956 90 813 783 302 23 0
VODI 7 449 36 695 1023 775 50 0
ODI 1 69 18 350 818 1057 59 0
CDI 0 5 5 100 523 1515 304 18
VCDI 0 0 0 53 598 8526 27666 25833
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89842 19720 258 1275 711 225 0 0
OW 139 1027 97 731 580 396 11 0
VODI 20 429 55 945 801 736 34 0
ODI 1 76 16 461 1078 997 76 0
CDI 0 4 4 166 748 1723 258 27
VCDI 0 0 0 65 569 9996 26798 25953
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89186 19826 254 1238 1062 308 59 0
OW 31 555 100 915 596 265 48 0
VODI 0 125 29 728 1232 739 79 0
ODI 0 17 8 125 1247 1175 114 6
CDI 0 1 0 58 625 2385 735 34
VCDI 0 0 0 3 448 6874 26274 29544
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88814 18760 239 1169 927 538 15 0
OW 93 632 54 712 529 318 51 0
VODI 2 193 34 548 1232 539 69 0
ODI 0 26 4 217 1092 1167 101 0
CDI 0 2 1 48 762 2100 287 18
VCDI 0 0 0 5 205 5097 23911 36537
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88819 18800 241 1173 868 566 38 0
OW 85 614 53 735 589 308 50 0
VODI 5 172 30 515 1299 549 70 0
ODI 0 23 7 215 1041 1178 102 0
CDI 0 4 1 53 738 1901 317 14
VCDI 0 0 0 8 212 5257 23857 36541

Date: 2019-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88543 17995 194 1016 728 144 0 0
OW 65 669 74 637 621 479 12 0
VODI 4 199 47 694 927 638 39 0
ODI 1 28 10 222 971 997 52 0
CDI 0 4 0 123 699 2123 229 29
VCDI 0 0 0 14 306 6873 24225 36417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88523 18047 206 1066 761 161 0 0
OW 83 613 66 650 544 494 13 0
VODI 7 201 42 633 1035 746 34 0
ODI 0 23 9 222 994 1053 71 0
CDI 0 11 2 99 606 1821 265 34
VCDI 0 0 0 36 312 6979 24174 36412

Date: 2019-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86833 18979 200 1202 641 98 7 0
OW 49 533 83 670 689 251 34 0
VODI 1 52 31 589 1147 597 115 0
ODI 0 1 0 92 1010 1068 169 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 383 2534 610 73
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 6480 26287 35403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86807 18360 184 1056 700 138 3 0
OW 72 839 76 516 554 263 18 0
VODI 4 327 44 618 881 676 126 0
ODI 0 39 7 245 761 1073 163 5
CDI 0 0 3 110 734 1507 449 113
VCDI 0 0 0 15 370 7371 26463 35358

Date: 2019-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85896 19032 203 1102 626 237 0 0
OW 50 607 78 619 499 161 2 0
VODI 2 166 25 489 963 289 25 0
ODI 0 22 7 151 922 709 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 100 879 1739 287 12
VCDI 0 0 0 5 706 7139 24451 38805
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85854 18215 193 971 703 388 8 0
OW 88 946 46 503 343 172 21 0
VODI 6 527 57 529 707 338 69 0
ODI 0 111 11 211 872 767 128 0
CDI 0 28 6 185 882 1395 601 12
VCDI 0 0 0 67 1088 7214 23981 38805

Date: 2019-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83858 19477 214 1086 562 205 6 0
OW 40 820 75 698 412 151 8 0
VODI 0 345 43 511 755 249 32 0
ODI 0 32 18 284 842 312 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 992 1180 93 80
VCDI 0 0 0 25 1090 8100 23548 40749
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83839 18869 213 1164 736 353 10 0
OW 55 815 53 434 396 198 35 0
VODI 4 616 40 452 629 333 51 0
ODI 0 303 28 279 611 478 72 0
CDI 0 70 13 244 714 1002 308 36
VCDI 0 1 3 142 1567 7833 23256 40793


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