Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-11-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 364 39 260 90 45 0 0
OW 0 24 8 95 118 35 3 0
VODI 0 12 2 46 173 61 2 0
ODI 0 3 1 29 139 195 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 134 367 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 184 4983 13276 16179
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 338 36 279 155 68 1 0
OW 0 38 9 47 96 40 2 0
VODI 0 15 2 47 73 61 3 0
ODI 0 11 1 31 108 80 4 0
CDI 0 1 2 32 158 300 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 248 5137 13287 16179

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 51 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 212 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 357 1147 1355
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 112 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 459 1151 1355

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 16 2 55 80 116 0 0
OW 0 2 1 14 39 104 5 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 50 240 46 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 283 84 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 317 266 37
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 198 2530 5486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 18 3 59 112 193 4 0
OW 0 0 0 21 46 97 15 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 11 200 53 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 215 78 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 169 161 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 384 2620 5510

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 768 3435 71 483 361 0 0 0
OW 3 37 1 62 98 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 4 124 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 11 149 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 714 3335 70 514 422 1 0 0
OW 43 105 2 26 106 20 0 0
VODI 13 32 1 9 61 78 0 0
ODI 1 0 0 0 5 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 21 3 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 4 35 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 2 142 67 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 250 192 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 837 164 53
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 789 3975 595
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 13 3 44 2 0 0 0
OW 0 17 4 43 9 7 0 0
VODI 0 13 2 96 62 29 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 91 168 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 138 381 162 37
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1235 3964 611

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 54 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 413 3846 965
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 432 3861 965

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 1236 24 103 19 0 0 0
OW 0 175 35 301 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 2 244 430 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 32 424 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 82 195 6 4
VCDI 0 0 0 3 59 739 1902 141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 990 17 80 19 0 0 0
OW 0 231 20 164 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 14 257 386 15 0 0
ODI 0 58 3 74 331 107 0 0
CDI 0 26 4 46 152 110 4 1
VCDI 0 4 5 78 157 776 1904 144

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6503 3545 46 128 14 0 0 0
OW 0 27 15 101 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 62 169 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 121 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 184 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 202 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6503 3550 56 158 54 1 0 0
OW 0 25 6 104 77 15 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 30 146 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 81 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 131 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 215 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5743 2796 10 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 68 17 118 2 2 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 138 77 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 170 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 136 282 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 1377 646 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5743 2802 6 21 0 3 0 0
OW 0 58 15 102 5 20 0 0
VODI 0 7 8 114 66 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 126 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 159 169 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 1433 645 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10693 1986 16 59 55 9 0 0
OW 0 5 3 23 13 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 43 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10693 1991 19 72 69 15 0 0
OW 0 0 0 16 22 25 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 27 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1589 1656 36 162 116 32 0 0
OW 0 18 3 56 162 139 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 97 362 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 61 239 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 243 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 626 72 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1589 1662 36 141 131 96 0 0
OW 0 12 3 76 127 148 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 86 384 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 35 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 56 176 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 119 646 69 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3333 3958 42 176 4 0 0 0
OW 2 122 23 292 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 3 122 175 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 220 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3335 3606 25 54 1 0 0 0
OW 0 248 15 183 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 166 20 266 107 0 0 0
ODI 0 60 6 59 175 3 0 0
CDI 0 18 2 44 174 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18776 1397 3 3 0 0 0 0
OW 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 4 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18777 1392 3 3 0 0 0 0
OW 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 9 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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