Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-11-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86484 9288 77 249 153 45 27 0
OW 12 114 17 149 120 36 24 0
VODI 0 50 5 91 200 49 36 0
ODI 0 15 8 49 177 80 46 0
CDI 0 1 2 44 153 153 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 164 1853 6985 2076
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85288 10332 71 200 113 20 29 0
OW 12 140 31 236 64 22 37 0
VODI 0 36 8 158 215 24 47 0
ODI 0 11 3 39 195 86 56 0
CDI 0 2 4 30 144 202 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 176 1679 6018 3309
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85972 9547 93 349 154 8 0 0
OW 12 54 10 199 172 48 1 0
VODI 0 24 4 73 215 81 13 0
ODI 0 11 4 13 163 140 12 0
CDI 0 1 2 24 123 334 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 75 1711 6930 2468
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84636 10758 83 316 137 10 0 0
OW 16 70 19 228 166 59 1 0
VODI 0 32 0 101 183 72 14 0
ODI 0 9 3 27 150 139 28 0
CDI 0 0 3 32 143 228 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 111 1098 5288 4841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84636 10753 82 369 161 20 0 0
OW 16 75 20 178 142 47 3 0
VODI 0 33 0 102 190 75 16 0
ODI 0 7 4 24 145 135 27 0
CDI 0 1 2 34 151 235 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 101 1094 5309 4841

Date: 2019-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85601 9736 95 299 119 12 0 0
OW 19 91 16 255 183 60 0 0
VODI 0 30 5 128 212 101 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 56 163 166 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 48 229 339 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 273 5311 4905 605
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85602 9749 95 343 121 14 0 0
OW 18 81 16 230 216 57 0 0
VODI 0 28 5 110 182 110 1 0
ODI 0 4 4 55 166 161 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 52 247 321 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 247 5326 4900 605

Date: 2019-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84405 10878 96 271 81 9 0 0
OW 19 121 38 283 118 5 0 0
VODI 0 21 5 246 322 80 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 47 322 153 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 252 532 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 4411 5186 1053
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84403 10883 106 308 124 19 0 0
OW 21 103 21 279 173 59 0 0
VODI 0 25 10 156 260 113 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 66 210 145 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 46 247 352 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 205 4502 5185 1053

Date: 2019-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84607 10313 110 394 116 4 0 0
OW 22 92 25 314 128 6 0 0
VODI 0 32 6 165 417 93 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 36 254 263 1 0
CDI 0 3 0 34 176 588 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 116 2566 6892 1276
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84607 10289 107 401 151 13 0 0
OW 22 94 23 283 133 46 0 0
VODI 0 37 7 155 358 202 1 0
ODI 0 18 5 39 207 180 8 0
CDI 0 9 2 43 199 418 27 0
VCDI 0 3 0 30 159 2661 6887 1276

Date: 2019-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84495 9947 112 478 250 10 0 0
OW 26 90 22 217 190 13 0 0
VODI 0 31 5 122 339 116 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 51 275 244 9 0
CDI 0 5 1 17 175 628 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 100 1531 6200 3265
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84495 9882 100 459 270 18 0 0
OW 26 115 23 176 165 39 0 0
VODI 0 48 12 150 351 137 4 0
ODI 0 13 3 39 198 248 17 0
CDI 0 17 1 31 177 328 57 0
VCDI 0 9 3 31 168 1772 6253 3265


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