Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-11-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96377 19831 225 1064 636 111 27 0
OW 58 577 63 573 551 165 32 0
VODI 20 158 33 510 1023 224 47 0
ODI 1 25 8 214 1127 530 66 0
CDI 0 1 2 44 463 1332 182 51
VCDI 0 0 0 17 173 5906 26065 28536
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94878 20316 198 966 566 75 29 0
OW 54 751 88 817 475 158 37 0
VODI 16 181 47 624 1151 230 47 0
ODI 1 23 7 233 976 453 78 0
CDI 0 2 4 95 785 1136 172 3
VCDI 0 0 0 41 433 5765 20686 34451
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94226 19230 249 1422 917 31 0 0
OW 34 671 67 851 990 132 1 0
VODI 2 137 29 557 1207 470 14 0
ODI 0 38 8 126 921 907 21 0
CDI 0 4 4 87 605 1593 221 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 561 6608 26426 27629
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92239 19482 220 1276 930 66 0 0
OW 78 941 78 688 902 235 3 0
VODI 5 436 44 677 1136 755 26 0
ODI 1 65 20 290 884 887 42 0
CDI 0 6 8 157 660 1372 153 30
VCDI 0 0 1 121 808 6153 24752 30421
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92207 19724 232 1456 1270 107 0 0
OW 105 706 75 623 664 246 7 0
VODI 10 422 38 573 1062 747 25 0
ODI 1 70 18 263 870 855 43 0
CDI 0 8 6 180 587 1361 128 17
VCDI 0 0 2 114 867 6152 24773 30434

Date: 2019-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90953 19372 263 1314 784 173 4 0
OW 98 1034 91 695 634 360 20 0
VODI 12 459 62 835 810 706 37 0
ODI 1 57 11 433 1051 1090 44 0
CDI 0 2 1 134 600 1662 247 15
VCDI 0 0 0 35 720 10940 23941 27348
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90902 19629 278 1471 1002 246 4 0
OW 138 788 72 619 602 408 12 0
VODI 23 432 67 797 760 686 39 0
ODI 1 67 9 384 1001 1028 66 0
CDI 0 8 2 134 534 1510 264 18
VCDI 0 0 0 41 700 11053 23908 27345

Date: 2019-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89248 20410 292 1480 739 202 0 0
OW 27 499 110 1097 637 283 8 0
VODI 0 70 15 791 1405 756 48 0
ODI 0 6 3 132 1409 1335 111 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 445 2701 500 94
VCDI 0 0 0 3 359 9684 27394 24721
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89196 19697 274 1425 965 377 5 0
OW 65 742 74 782 531 372 17 0
VODI 13 366 47 821 1025 853 58 0
ODI 1 131 12 273 958 1047 109 0
CDI 0 45 8 146 882 1595 371 51
VCDI 0 4 5 90 633 10717 27501 24764

Date: 2019-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88659 19739 242 1090 979 450 69 0
OW 31 796 98 748 503 243 54 0
VODI 0 195 34 735 1172 614 77 0
ODI 0 32 9 190 1218 933 106 1
CDI 0 3 0 68 715 2074 689 45
VCDI 0 0 0 9 350 5667 24403 34008
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88601 18761 227 1076 1062 605 74 0
OW 68 1085 63 537 526 312 67 0
VODI 20 628 64 720 1060 807 109 0
ODI 1 181 16 242 864 819 240 0
CDI 0 95 6 131 724 1470 634 30
VCDI 0 15 7 134 701 5968 24274 34024

Date: 2019-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89320 17597 208 1164 899 385 0 0
OW 53 591 82 643 638 412 13 0
VODI 2 140 34 581 1037 660 53 0
ODI 0 19 9 212 1010 1108 102 0
CDI 0 5 2 83 592 2209 310 46
VCDI 0 0 0 1 212 4940 23166 38510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89285 16754 194 1131 1049 535 2 0
OW 71 875 61 528 534 561 19 0
VODI 15 593 54 511 970 893 133 0
ODI 4 104 20 336 765 1005 164 0
CDI 0 17 3 138 618 1361 453 50
VCDI 0 9 3 40 452 5359 22873 38506


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