Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-11-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-11

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 1102 24 82 9 0 0 0
OW 0 19 5 116 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 1 42 154 43 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 13 101 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 45 259 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 2102 11420 21048
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 1057 24 60 1 0 0 0
OW 0 47 2 79 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 3 71 106 9 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 32 110 71 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 14 82 168 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 101 2289 11433 21048

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 15 7 120 17 0 0 0
OW 0 1 3 45 48 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 4 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 65 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 261 393 2131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 16 9 115 25 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 37 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 19 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 326 394 2131

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 563 23 371 185 1 0 0
OW 0 1 2 119 306 69 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 290 309 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 119 338 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 428 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1050 2900 2724
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 564 25 475 339 87 0 0
OW 0 0 0 28 211 132 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 171 220 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 117 224 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 59 220 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1312 2943 2724

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3106 2273 13 22 0 0 0 0
OW 13 46 7 80 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 36 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3097 2193 12 50 6 0 0 0
OW 22 103 8 49 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 1 37 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 2 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 53 9 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 2 109 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 138 199 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 422 165 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 76 518 37 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 592 3787 1053
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 42 4 18 3 0 0 0
OW 0 17 6 68 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 137 153 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 264 111 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 181 307 25 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 846 3799 1053

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 45 258 89
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 2140 2744
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 42 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 47 2339 2833

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14 1714 33 161 8 0 0 0
OW 0 189 27 225 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 8 194 220 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 45 98 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 50 61 12 10
VCDI 0 0 0 8 152 512 1897 564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14 1293 27 173 9 0 0 0
OW 0 342 9 48 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 250 24 193 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 35 4 124 67 0 0 0
CDI 0 16 3 53 98 12 6 2
VCDI 0 1 2 76 247 569 1903 572

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6491 3566 58 193 95 1 0 0
OW 0 5 5 68 142 29 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 11 109 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 32 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 101 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 215 33 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6491 3528 51 155 53 0 0 0
OW 0 30 9 65 97 11 0 0
VODI 0 14 3 38 118 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 73 81 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 42 162 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 212 33 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5646 2900 18 46 5 6 0 0
OW 0 37 12 120 13 18 7 0
VODI 0 7 2 76 118 31 19 0
ODI 0 1 2 12 134 51 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 89 175 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 471 1570 23
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5646 2870 17 62 24 32 19 0
OW 0 49 8 89 27 42 17 0
VODI 0 16 5 62 105 44 22 0
ODI 0 9 1 31 69 59 61 0
CDI 0 1 3 18 101 92 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 483 1514 23

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11229 1632 15 32 41 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 11 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11229 1632 15 43 64 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2298 1705 48 383 113 17 0 0
OW 0 31 3 108 136 29 0 0
VODI 0 5 5 42 115 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 149 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 206 95 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 147 54 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2298 1541 31 278 185 48 0 0
OW 0 160 17 104 43 23 0 0
VODI 0 32 3 113 75 11 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 33 54 6 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 27 104 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 284 240 54 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5276 3004 18 44 0 0 0 0
OW 48 84 7 21 3 0 0 0
VODI 32 28 0 6 4 0 0 0
ODI 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5314 2882 10 36 0 0 0 0
OW 31 204 14 27 7 0 0 0
VODI 22 30 1 8 0 0 0 0
ODI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18899 1287 1 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 1 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18899 1293 1 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 2 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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