Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-11-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12670 8989 113 408 36 0 0 0
OW 2 697 65 358 161 3 0 0
VODI 0 164 26 342 379 18 0 0
ODI 0 31 7 91 415 89 0 0
CDI 0 20 2 51 345 310 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 213 2399 8911 8498
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11656 8575 124 668 309 26 0 0
OW 4 518 60 462 417 35 0 0
VODI 0 164 17 201 626 111 4 0
ODI 0 23 3 27 385 221 34 0
CDI 0 6 0 13 184 482 93 1
VCDI 0 1 0 0 41 1727 8417 10231
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10801 8604 139 729 282 18 0 0
OW 3 163 33 566 263 23 0 0
VODI 0 13 10 434 581 110 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 613 342 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 304 762 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 1163 8963 10858
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8872 9691 128 726 359 44 0 0
OW 24 142 33 403 385 68 0 0
VODI 0 8 7 282 777 174 7 0
ODI 0 5 0 22 673 362 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 735 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1112 7240 13389
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8872 9688 130 724 406 44 0 0
OW 24 144 34 372 333 81 3 0
VODI 0 9 4 306 728 129 8 0
ODI 0 5 0 31 715 352 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 128 742 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1147 7234 13389

Date: 2019-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9874 7993 116 573 463 84 0 0
OW 39 345 44 407 354 161 0 0
VODI 20 102 25 287 583 133 0 0
ODI 1 2 0 131 686 298 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 273 576 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 1955 8352 11896
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9865 7999 115 593 510 97 0 0
OW 48 336 43 334 287 131 0 0
VODI 20 105 25 314 525 163 0 0
ODI 1 2 2 145 663 247 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 337 578 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 1991 8366 11896

Date: 2019-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9095 7708 130 1000 324 18 0 0
OW 61 192 28 543 563 100 0 0
VODI 32 43 7 232 725 396 1 0
ODI 12 0 0 33 563 588 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 231 863 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 2100 7288 12772
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9124 7410 112 1025 559 135 0 0
OW 53 424 40 354 342 155 0 0
VODI 22 99 8 291 518 259 0 0
ODI 1 9 3 101 452 418 29 0
CDI 0 1 2 27 252 446 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 310 2652 7345 12772

Date: 2019-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7583 7760 92 629 732 21 0 0
OW 50 499 29 323 681 144 0 0
VODI 2 143 11 259 676 387 0 0
ODI 0 31 4 82 415 611 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 145 772 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 152 2900 8933 11709
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7545 7522 78 545 1064 188 0 0
OW 75 637 32 282 502 293 0 0
VODI 14 261 23 311 448 423 0 0
ODI 1 12 2 144 341 478 5 0
CDI 0 1 1 23 261 503 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 185 2950 8954 11709

Date: 2019-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6006 8074 110 718 670 75 5 0
OW 64 542 23 263 538 241 21 0
VODI 7 326 20 261 456 560 34 0
ODI 1 62 12 200 339 699 30 0
CDI 0 5 3 40 130 788 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 215 2759 10465 10930
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5908 7895 98 582 748 255 22 0
OW 146 748 31 302 402 350 38 0
VODI 23 279 30 352 381 654 67 0
ODI 1 83 6 187 240 433 130 0
CDI 0 4 3 54 266 521 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 311 2909 10293 10930


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