Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-10-31

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-11-04

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 162 1302 14 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 43 18 116 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 8 84 149 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 181 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 80 759 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 92 2770 13463 17332
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 162 1133 8 30 5 19 0 0
OW 0 142 7 56 45 75 3 0
VODI 0 75 18 106 128 310 67 0
ODI 0 2 7 43 137 131 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 100 233 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 117 2848 13325 17332

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 241 3 15 15 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 6 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 142 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 60 98 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 331 1315 865
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 239 3 15 21 1 0 0
OW 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 21 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 146 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 47 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 378 1309 865

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 358 1543 39 216 97 42 0 0
OW 0 132 15 148 72 20 2 0
VODI 0 23 8 228 144 39 6 0
ODI 0 9 2 12 349 64 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 496 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 293 2526 2945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 358 1633 48 406 193 81 9 0
OW 0 52 10 148 136 66 12 0
VODI 0 21 6 49 274 118 26 0
ODI 0 1 0 1 89 242 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 192 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 255 2347 2945

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3309 2107 16 54 1 0 0 0
OW 6 21 2 63 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3311 2107 17 106 15 0 0 0
OW 4 21 1 23 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 93 11 33 1 0 0 0
OW 0 33 10 157 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 174 310 120 22 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 223 127 91 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 561 704 100
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 280 2616 1523
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 123 16 207 253 169 120 0
OW 0 3 5 127 180 82 114 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 68 210 357 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 58 140 315 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 194 536 185
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 293 1991 1437

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 99 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 76 891 299 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 109 3087 670
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 74 31 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 101 559 195 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 465 505 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 613 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 2073 670

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 843 1616 15 47 0 0 0 0
OW 14 80 23 109 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 83 107 2 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 185 124 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 543 658 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 215 1483 61
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 856 1598 23 124 50 32 35 0
OW 1 86 12 85 180 167 115 0
VODI 0 15 4 27 49 208 547 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 37 179 372 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 118 509 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 180 635 58

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7424 3145 38 109 5 0 0 0
OW 0 43 11 87 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 4 64 71 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 13 43 3 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 2 24 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 169 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7424 3148 43 172 18 0 0 0
OW 0 29 4 56 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 35 51 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 9 22 9 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 3 16 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 0 22 171 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5865 2887 10 55 46 49 33 0
OW 0 41 7 95 45 40 10 0
VODI 0 6 5 87 47 41 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 98 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 123 71 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 839 1070 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5865 2843 7 81 82 92 45 0
OW 0 64 7 55 27 38 0 0
VODI 0 25 5 83 46 40 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 39 57 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 117 41 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 851 1070 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12059 869 9 44 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12059 869 9 44 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3520 1341 22 150 172 0 0 0
OW 0 76 20 127 18 1 0 0
VODI 0 7 4 77 31 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 60 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 64 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 39 49 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3520 1318 32 225 184 0 0 0
OW 0 53 1 67 21 4 0 0
VODI 0 50 8 33 44 7 0 0
ODI 0 2 5 23 44 7 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 12 51 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 39 49 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6442 2123 3 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6437 2118 3 19 0 0 0 0
OW 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 109 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 109 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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