Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90708 6195 53 306 196 52 0 0
OW 0 84 14 103 64 45 0 0
VODI 0 27 13 123 90 46 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 63 124 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 166 106 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 239 2185 7426 582
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90395 6242 51 247 342 75 0 0
OW 0 103 22 101 64 57 0 0
VODI 0 37 8 88 87 89 0 0
ODI 0 3 5 58 104 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 139 173 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 175 2177 7593 551
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90275 6324 68 415 148 29 0 0
OW 0 61 17 131 76 14 0 0
VODI 0 20 6 97 126 35 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 39 119 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 165 225 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 129 2346 6930 1212
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89787 6687 61 295 219 80 0 0
OW 2 84 12 125 85 14 0 0
VODI 0 18 7 120 106 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 145 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 153 177 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 2186 7207 1282
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89787 6702 62 301 212 81 0 0
OW 2 76 12 127 85 15 0 0
VODI 0 10 6 108 124 38 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 32 131 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 156 152 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 2200 7209 1282

Date: 2019-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89044 7394 59 218 149 106 11 0
OW 4 122 24 129 72 20 5 0
VODI 0 46 10 131 92 28 2 0
ODI 0 3 1 59 113 41 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 22 153 99 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 149 2630 6868 1289
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89043 7431 62 238 139 105 13 0
OW 5 99 22 125 73 21 4 0
VODI 0 32 9 127 111 29 1 0
ODI 0 3 1 45 110 45 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 23 147 90 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 148 2634 6868 1289

Date: 2019-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89618 6769 56 207 58 49 33 0
OW 9 88 21 186 60 40 10 0
VODI 0 20 13 151 123 41 2 0
ODI 0 3 0 62 175 49 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 20 183 109 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 158 2994 6912 877
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89621 6705 57 277 104 92 45 0
OW 6 112 11 109 73 38 0 0
VODI 0 55 15 133 114 41 0 0
ODI 0 7 7 62 104 33 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 37 162 67 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 9 200 3011 6912 877

Date: 2019-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87377 8585 63 294 119 81 25 0
OW 9 93 25 158 103 41 16 0
VODI 0 27 5 146 166 46 20 0
ODI 0 1 3 53 179 63 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 192 124 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 136 2129 7445 1309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87379 8556 74 367 182 134 46 0
OW 7 89 6 113 149 37 18 0
VODI 0 45 11 95 166 68 16 0
ODI 0 14 2 56 109 46 9 0
CDI 0 2 3 42 134 108 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 155 2091 7443 1309

Date: 2019-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86484 9288 77 249 153 45 27 0
OW 12 114 17 149 120 36 24 0
VODI 0 50 5 91 200 49 36 0
ODI 0 15 8 49 177 80 46 0
CDI 0 1 2 44 153 153 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 164 1853 6985 2076
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86487 9289 83 320 260 74 52 0
OW 9 87 10 95 199 47 40 0
VODI 0 59 3 68 143 97 47 0
ODI 0 24 9 42 75 92 33 0
CDI 0 9 3 46 114 103 24 0
VCDI 0 0 1 28 176 1803 6973 2076


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