Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-10-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110275 22265 260 1394 566 56 0 0
OW 0 1155 127 1287 1072 121 0 0
VODI 0 218 49 834 1438 378 5 0
ODI 0 11 4 182 1007 933 29 0
CDI 0 0 1 47 505 1534 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 369 3675 19492 17495
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108008 20250 220 1205 935 76 0 0
OW 16 1803 180 1646 2035 231 0 0
VODI 0 133 35 678 1647 857 11 0
ODI 0 4 11 161 1232 1109 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 588 1663 364 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 326 4105 19419 17965
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106288 19928 312 2026 376 29 0 0
OW 5 981 128 1281 717 23 0 0
VODI 0 78 34 771 2035 282 1 0
ODI 0 14 5 142 1934 1292 19 0
CDI 0 4 3 37 1041 3364 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 366 6443 20541 16424
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105103 17704 229 1338 844 107 0 0
OW 17 1331 93 1008 1822 337 0 0
VODI 4 174 43 583 1588 1027 29 0
ODI 0 15 8 112 1107 1606 183 0
CDI 0 7 2 68 643 3058 704 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 388 6970 22903 15886
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105109 17990 245 1540 1087 175 0 0
OW 12 1089 83 831 1432 286 0 0
VODI 3 133 39 554 1573 890 10 0
ODI 0 13 6 119 1168 1629 220 0
CDI 0 6 2 66 769 2922 758 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 363 7203 22831 15886

Date: 2019-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101980 18625 202 873 695 321 11 0
OW 7 861 117 1106 1023 967 20 0
VODI 0 211 47 562 1187 2241 211 0
ODI 0 23 3 139 524 1783 398 0
CDI 0 7 1 52 401 2230 1520 13
VCDI 0 0 1 9 253 5956 23282 19186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101979 18943 225 1152 992 456 13 0
OW 8 565 92 766 631 764 35 0
VODI 0 186 50 652 1217 2168 226 0
ODI 0 21 2 118 568 1750 382 0
CDI 0 11 1 45 404 2159 1384 10
VCDI 0 1 1 8 271 6201 23402 19189

Date: 2019-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101928 17376 182 774 344 91 33 0
OW 29 469 106 903 230 63 12 0
VODI 0 54 30 811 908 213 43 0
ODI 0 12 2 96 1396 546 159 0
CDI 0 1 2 20 560 3453 1878 106
VCDI 0 0 0 1 167 5045 25609 23396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101941 17238 211 1432 828 394 209 0
OW 16 457 47 618 747 465 244 0
VODI 0 204 47 372 794 1457 1192 0
ODI 0 10 15 120 590 1201 1341 1
CDI 0 3 1 54 419 851 1949 194
VCDI 0 0 1 9 227 5043 22799 23307

Date: 2019-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97810 19975 212 1099 495 91 25 0
OW 30 325 69 685 527 69 16 0
VODI 0 48 17 669 1019 229 20 0
ODI 0 2 3 133 935 666 81 5
CDI 0 0 0 27 564 1884 590 131
VCDI 0 0 0 4 186 4310 24303 29794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97773 19824 233 1460 882 364 151 0
OW 63 403 36 618 823 337 170 0
VODI 4 107 27 380 1020 1011 746 6
ODI 0 14 2 101 488 1123 1913 37
CDI 0 2 3 49 352 1097 1669 415
VCDI 0 0 0 9 161 3317 20386 29472

Date: 2019-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96377 19831 225 1064 636 111 27 0
OW 58 577 63 573 551 165 32 0
VODI 20 158 33 510 1023 224 47 0
ODI 1 25 8 214 1127 530 66 0
CDI 0 1 2 44 463 1332 182 51
VCDI 0 0 0 17 173 5906 26065 28536
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96300 19686 236 1366 1120 489 64 0
OW 130 662 57 443 867 272 86 0
VODI 24 197 23 383 978 770 424 0
ODI 2 38 11 140 472 1197 1241 9
CDI 0 9 3 62 315 1238 2601 249
VCDI 0 0 1 28 221 4302 22003 28329


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