Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-10-24

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-28

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 328 1861 47 185 8 0 0 0
OW 0 157 22 298 39 1 0 0
VODI 0 20 14 138 293 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 290 215 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 106 717 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 122 2285 14457 15110
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 328 1527 23 168 78 65 0 0
OW 0 427 35 236 139 223 4 0
VODI 0 73 17 164 270 281 42 0
ODI 0 11 5 66 111 249 130 0
CDI 0 0 3 29 96 200 316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 164 2261 14029 15110

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 347 5 31 7 0 0 0
OW 0 36 3 14 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 65 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 60 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 109 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 45 638 1601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 322 4 31 10 0 0 0
OW 0 61 4 19 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 59 81 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 33 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 56 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 49 642 1601

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 809 2110 40 175 23 0 0 0
OW 0 132 18 215 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 7 188 193 11 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 31 297 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 163 289 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 52 981 2427 1615
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 809 2015 39 172 45 0 0 0
OW 0 134 5 171 77 1 0 0
VODI 0 117 18 151 158 35 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 90 190 69 0 0
CDI 0 3 2 41 229 186 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 104 1055 2427 1615

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5292 361 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5293 355 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 255 1969 51 255 8 0 0 0
OW 0 101 26 348 151 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 3 243 587 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 873 330 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 1353 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 204 214 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 255 1955 76 577 537 70 0 0
OW 0 120 4 232 827 525 21 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 288 404 130 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 40 337 97 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 468 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 126 9 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1349 19 77 1 0 0 0
OW 0 250 38 200 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 195 269 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 649 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 328 726 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 529 482 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1381 31 181 30 0 0 0
OW 0 218 27 199 121 17 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 94 430 98 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 349 225 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 333 406 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 632 430 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1822 2686 36 166 0 0 0 0
OW 0 118 29 219 2 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 275 185 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 438 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 202 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1822 2361 36 292 8 0 0 0
OW 0 398 24 282 106 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 5 91 413 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 129 206 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 49 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8038 2673 33 130 29 0 0 0
OW 0 37 4 31 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 16 36 7 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 10 23 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 38 98 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 32 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8038 2642 24 102 39 0 0 0
OW 0 57 13 42 31 5 0 0
VODI 0 25 5 39 25 22 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 5 20 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 32 44 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 68 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5990 2829 27 166 255 37 0 0
OW 0 30 7 58 37 23 0 0
VODI 0 8 4 49 62 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 68 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 72 151 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 342 1331 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5990 2788 24 166 283 88 0 0
OW 0 52 7 30 24 61 0 0
VODI 0 25 3 45 40 44 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 36 50 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 79 83 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 338 1324 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12463 525 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12463 525 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3896 1412 23 98 38 0 0 0
OW 0 23 8 64 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 63 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 29 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 62 25 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3896 1417 26 123 43 0 0 0
OW 0 18 6 44 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 48 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 62 25 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6011 2542 13 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6010 2542 13 21 0 0 0 0
OW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 108 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 108 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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