Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91968 5476 73 324 330 189 0 0
OW 0 36 6 140 68 66 0 0
VODI 0 14 2 92 193 90 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 201 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 88 394 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1739 7311 100
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91984 5348 54 369 304 11 0 0
OW 0 26 5 98 96 48 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 96 138 73 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 49 132 93 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 174 209 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 3716 5870 82
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91704 5573 53 297 150 54 0 0
OW 0 56 16 95 109 5 0 0
VODI 0 12 3 111 158 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 49 145 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 180 127 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 167 4269 5219 481
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90779 6317 39 279 141 67 0 0
OW 0 99 18 91 50 42 0 0
VODI 0 35 14 118 96 14 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 86 124 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 161 68 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 424 2845 6361 742
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90779 6303 39 279 160 105 0 0
OW 0 95 16 93 47 14 0 0
VODI 0 49 14 117 87 13 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 79 120 17 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 47 141 73 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 441 2836 6361 742

Date: 2019-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90232 6481 59 355 256 42 0 0
OW 0 79 16 100 78 53 0 0
VODI 0 33 9 112 99 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 57 110 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 166 149 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 182 1921 7919 432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90232 6458 57 349 275 87 0 0
OW 0 97 15 97 57 37 0 0
VODI 0 35 12 126 103 47 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 50 117 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 19 152 146 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 187 1914 7919 432

Date: 2019-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90394 6226 65 291 283 37 0 0
OW 0 74 12 115 77 23 0 0
VODI 0 25 9 82 121 44 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 42 118 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 143 279 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 108 2299 6917 1186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90394 6153 51 270 321 88 0 0
OW 0 112 22 76 59 66 0 0
VODI 0 57 9 109 87 66 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 52 97 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 136 145 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 150 2343 6910 1186

Date: 2019-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90070 6453 68 312 233 58 0 0
OW 0 72 11 127 78 14 0 0
VODI 0 23 8 108 125 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 131 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 175 167 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 154 2206 7107 1265
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90070 6364 58 298 264 81 0 0
OW 0 112 17 89 78 29 0 0
VODI 0 61 6 121 94 69 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 50 107 64 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 32 142 127 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 211 2165 7107 1265

Date: 2019-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89051 7370 69 262 208 94 1 0
OW 4 93 13 134 89 17 2 0
VODI 0 27 8 127 95 38 3 0
ODI 0 0 1 49 113 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 134 148 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 151 2548 7284 894
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89055 7196 58 247 250 110 3 0
OW 0 213 14 94 63 33 3 0
VODI 0 65 13 139 79 76 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 58 83 79 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 46 121 145 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 194 2456 7279 894


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