Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17858 6772 73 302 25 0 0 0
OW 0 169 30 222 317 21 0 0
VODI 0 35 21 165 299 72 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 61 235 154 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 219 432 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 1295 9515 7451
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17517 6926 70 254 49 0 0 0
OW 1 300 47 182 158 5 0 0
VODI 0 85 20 241 291 99 0 0
ODI 0 11 6 93 240 126 4 0
CDI 0 2 2 29 268 341 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 1452 9633 7245
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16713 7421 109 325 82 0 0 0
OW 0 219 37 240 181 4 0 0
VODI 0 56 10 214 286 71 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 46 306 152 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 15 215 589 51 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 39 1063 6607 10799
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15909 7378 104 420 151 0 0 0
OW 0 219 41 358 262 24 0 0
VODI 0 33 13 146 390 139 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 228 251 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 128 584 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1104 7099 10743
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15909 7356 105 437 192 5 0 0
OW 0 198 33 309 191 29 0 0
VODI 0 76 20 164 405 100 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 212 282 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 146 538 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 1148 7084 10743

Date: 2019-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15820 6917 104 441 122 4 0 0
OW 1 182 38 421 314 34 0 0
VODI 0 31 7 154 461 138 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 54 243 268 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 153 466 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 936 7395 11063
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15818 6925 106 476 124 4 0 0
OW 3 138 27 330 325 34 0 0
VODI 0 67 13 197 404 134 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 69 278 257 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 153 497 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 920 7413 11063

Date: 2019-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14207 8399 104 370 76 0 0 0
OW 1 247 38 394 122 1 0 0
VODI 0 41 18 378 390 15 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 64 511 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 250 569 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 69 1244 7039 11127
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14207 8118 98 408 109 0 0 0
OW 1 416 29 323 186 5 0 0
VODI 0 143 27 302 388 93 0 0
ODI 0 13 6 139 290 188 9 0
CDI 0 3 2 50 303 336 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 142 1331 7022 11127

Date: 2019-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13535 8838 98 380 29 0 0 0
OW 12 492 43 301 178 0 0 0
VODI 1 73 26 281 390 1 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 66 503 77 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 39 337 446 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 175 2958 7879 8669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13515 8605 95 383 68 0 0 0
OW 33 510 31 257 145 11 0 0
VODI 0 268 29 237 427 60 0 0
ODI 0 27 11 113 401 154 0 0
CDI 0 11 3 58 348 424 15 0
VCDI 0 0 2 25 223 2833 7875 8669

Date: 2019-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12670 8989 113 408 36 0 0 0
OW 2 697 65 358 161 3 0 0
VODI 0 164 26 342 379 18 0 0
ODI 0 31 7 91 415 89 0 0
CDI 0 20 2 51 345 310 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 213 2399 8911 8498
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12632 8366 121 459 39 2 0 0
OW 40 665 29 189 160 23 0 0
VODI 0 620 23 255 298 125 0 0
ODI 0 187 18 108 268 166 1 0
CDI 0 40 15 137 293 325 22 2
VCDI 0 23 7 118 491 2178 8925 8496


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