Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-10-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118686 20908 219 922 416 189 0 0
OW 55 1222 102 736 631 96 0 0
VODI 0 160 44 483 816 295 0 0
ODI 0 14 5 108 611 525 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 410 1224 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 125 3756 21631 12474
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117069 20855 217 1105 449 11 0 0
OW 4 1593 115 704 682 65 0 0
VODI 0 273 46 578 1054 378 3 0
ODI 0 31 15 182 545 503 35 0
CDI 0 5 8 87 515 943 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 248 6173 21061 11214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113899 22760 289 1228 319 54 0 0
OW 0 1075 117 1079 457 13 0 0
VODI 0 256 41 791 1010 142 0 0
ODI 0 16 6 159 1212 530 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 33 602 1413 119 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 268 6247 17974 14934
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110982 23142 243 1355 448 67 0 0
OW 0 1196 124 1147 766 76 0 0
VODI 0 255 66 970 1238 287 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 216 983 729 3 0
CDI 0 0 1 74 526 1518 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 572 5143 19298 15468
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110951 23273 250 1500 520 110 0 0
OW 31 1000 108 1066 664 48 0 0
VODI 0 315 72 856 1386 250 0 0
ODI 0 12 4 247 883 829 1 0
CDI 0 1 1 91 473 1408 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 607 5175 19265 15468

Date: 2019-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109457 20870 286 1720 661 46 0 0
OW 2 1186 154 1627 1410 166 0 0
VODI 0 137 29 714 1630 563 5 0
ODI 0 12 7 161 1040 1093 82 0
CDI 0 0 2 46 594 1484 389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 342 3570 20001 17551
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109404 21208 310 2008 817 93 0 0
OW 55 812 115 1268 1207 133 0 0
VODI 0 175 41 762 1674 599 6 0
ODI 0 9 9 184 1047 1139 113 0
CDI 0 1 3 42 529 1377 343 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 403 3581 20015 17551

Date: 2019-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106859 20772 296 1308 369 37 0 0
OW 1 884 155 1447 416 33 0 0
VODI 0 80 37 1232 1717 176 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 132 2727 875 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 927 3645 220 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 246 4481 19574 18326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106859 19938 298 1837 1073 223 0 0
OW 1 1491 125 1255 1381 832 25 0
VODI 0 289 51 737 1739 940 172 0
ODI 0 23 14 218 932 1205 235 0
CDI 0 3 5 94 861 1456 483 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 416 4591 18886 18326

Date: 2019-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105151 19196 294 1724 833 58 0 0
OW 12 1127 95 1116 1435 56 0 0
VODI 1 119 42 586 1934 601 11 0
ODI 0 11 1 122 1551 1491 38 0
CDI 0 7 3 51 798 3388 400 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 409 7540 20687 16154
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105131 18887 259 1692 1674 406 0 0
OW 33 1113 97 930 1593 1095 33 0
VODI 0 411 57 656 1697 1853 324 0
ODI 0 37 14 195 828 1339 390 0
CDI 0 12 6 103 652 1821 492 0
VCDI 0 0 2 29 516 6620 19897 16154

Date: 2019-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102974 18625 222 1053 848 105 1 0
OW 6 1121 124 1093 1594 740 2 0
VODI 0 200 38 599 1504 1467 18 0
ODI 0 31 8 141 719 1785 319 0
CDI 0 20 2 66 613 2596 1025 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 398 6281 24163 16529
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102940 17911 229 1195 1344 764 90 0
OW 40 1129 79 788 1110 1521 354 0
VODI 0 691 40 515 1565 2765 1054 0
ODI 0 201 21 166 505 1132 1079 0
CDI 0 42 18 183 464 1331 1181 12
VCDI 0 23 7 123 688 5461 21770 16517


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