Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-10-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 698 2816 50 215 58 0 0 0
OW 0 146 39 238 137 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 18 243 305 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 461 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 292 715 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 4864 15627 9653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 698 2678 58 266 173 0 0 0
OW 0 182 22 201 169 9 0 0
VODI 0 81 12 164 311 78 0 0
ODI 0 26 5 69 245 175 0 0
CDI 0 10 9 44 208 470 150 0
VCDI 0 1 1 42 257 4946 15489 9653

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 579 20 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 57 3 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 0 45 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 58 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 28 33 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 20 354 827 916
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 578 21 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 1 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 1 42 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 38 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 50 15 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 31 375 827 916

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1169 2627 32 138 16 0 0 0
OW 0 55 17 149 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 128 157 6 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 28 229 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 13 143 376 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 355 2583 1513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1169 2514 31 162 66 0 0 0
OW 0 123 14 95 109 24 0 0
VODI 0 45 5 111 144 132 0 0
ODI 0 19 3 51 124 114 9 0
CDI 0 6 5 36 152 200 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 39 369 2484 1513

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5648 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5648 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2217 3630 34 236 0 0 0 0
OW 0 298 34 269 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 5 140 102 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 200 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2216 3563 47 410 8 0 0 0
OW 1 299 18 167 128 14 0 0
VODI 0 85 8 75 168 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 169 2713 38 126 8 0 0 0
OW 0 232 21 149 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 7 214 184 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 402 104 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 80 302 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 113 299 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 167 2645 36 173 53 0 0 0
OW 2 257 21 162 192 41 0 0
VODI 0 94 8 175 360 132 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 9 84 170 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 28 90 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 89 254 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4255 1744 2 13 0 0 0 0
OW 8 190 7 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 0 28 4 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4255 1754 2 20 0 0 0 0
OW 8 191 5 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 2 34 4 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8668 2384 22 63 9 0 0 0
OW 0 21 0 25 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 27 52 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 13 23 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8668 2380 19 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 3 29 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 28 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 29 30 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6508 2668 23 223 189 19 0 0
OW 0 5 8 53 70 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 59 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 52 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 137 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 676 787 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6508 2661 25 238 238 39 0 0
OW 0 11 3 30 41 35 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 38 38 43 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 44 44 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 50 82 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 684 789 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4660 965 9 17 2 0 0 0
OW 0 29 6 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 5 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 82 7 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4660 927 4 6 1 0 0 0
OW 0 38 5 13 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 6 9 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 5 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 82 7 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7193 1377 8 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7193 1377 8 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19945 254 6 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19945 254 6 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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