Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93831 5112 43 239 151 0 0 0
OW 0 217 13 91 110 22 0 0
VODI 0 58 12 142 139 67 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 103 124 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 160 454 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1159 4822 1774
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93245 4991 56 360 365 31 0 0
OW 0 93 10 101 65 82 0 0
VODI 0 49 11 135 103 132 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 60 146 149 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 176 319 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1207 5245 1843
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92732 5291 57 393 243 19 0 0
OW 0 52 7 174 77 42 0 0
VODI 0 16 6 135 215 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 209 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 167 424 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 1285 6659 663
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92286 5320 66 362 325 126 0 0
OW 0 71 10 137 64 66 0 0
VODI 0 11 3 147 177 92 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 195 151 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 114 387 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 1798 7025 119
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92286 5310 67 373 325 146 0 0
OW 0 76 9 108 64 61 0 0
VODI 0 16 3 166 167 82 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 188 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 364 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 1820 7022 119

Date: 2019-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91638 5695 59 361 375 68 0 0
OW 0 50 17 103 53 71 0 0
VODI 0 25 1 113 127 93 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 19 190 117 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 141 323 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 2259 6905 258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91638 5681 58 359 374 91 0 0
OW 0 57 16 99 50 53 0 0
VODI 0 32 3 124 132 88 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 14 220 112 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 117 328 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 2259 6906 258

Date: 2019-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91768 5545 56 332 209 19 0 0
OW 0 29 10 108 115 10 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 95 176 31 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 39 170 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 182 246 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 4146 5348 302
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91768 5534 55 322 263 39 0 0
OW 0 34 8 87 83 36 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 97 147 50 2 0
ODI 0 3 0 63 144 63 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 154 157 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 138 4180 5349 302

Date: 2019-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90958 6281 58 254 107 59 0 0
OW 0 79 14 103 81 15 0 0
VODI 0 32 14 128 111 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 76 150 8 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 40 161 61 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 323 3669 5723 565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90958 6262 56 253 131 76 0 0
OW 0 88 13 102 83 7 0 0
VODI 0 39 13 92 130 12 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 93 125 30 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 51 140 86 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 324 3610 5723 565

Date: 2019-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90708 6195 53 306 196 52 0 0
OW 0 84 14 103 64 45 0 0
VODI 0 27 13 123 90 46 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 63 124 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 166 106 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 239 2185 7426 582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90708 6214 54 317 191 75 0 0
OW 0 73 15 102 75 36 0 0
VODI 0 19 9 121 129 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 51 114 66 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 25 168 127 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 202 2136 7426 582


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