Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18188 7180 89 203 46 8 0 0
OW 0 214 39 224 112 14 1 0
VODI 0 22 17 187 247 34 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 254 121 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 261 341 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 2145 9342 6370
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17645 7414 85 243 68 4 0 0
OW 0 225 43 253 101 12 0 0
VODI 0 20 15 246 254 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 276 96 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 274 361 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 2483 9959 5658
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17739 7503 84 248 33 0 0 0
OW 0 46 25 227 174 8 0 0
VODI 0 2 11 179 282 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 318 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 196 451 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 2111 10063 5902
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17900 6991 80 262 24 0 0 0
OW 0 134 32 289 234 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 14 170 314 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 264 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 213 447 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 1788 9532 6850
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17900 6993 84 311 54 0 0 0
OW 0 129 27 238 242 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 14 167 291 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 63 257 132 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 192 449 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 1755 9524 6850

Date: 2019-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17179 7279 61 320 49 0 0 0
OW 1 228 34 190 273 5 0 0
VODI 0 59 21 181 327 82 0 0
ODI 0 11 4 84 223 145 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 22 231 370 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1145 8951 8236
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17179 7325 65 331 61 0 0 0
OW 1 181 30 159 252 15 0 0
VODI 0 57 19 201 353 112 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 82 218 146 11 0
CDI 0 0 3 24 217 364 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 1110 8936 8236

Date: 2019-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17678 6859 80 222 19 0 0 0
OW 0 218 43 253 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 15 300 219 6 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 59 437 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 27 226 575 24 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 26 1318 9020 7948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17678 6712 80 252 70 0 0 0
OW 0 267 31 188 118 24 0 0
VODI 0 163 18 247 228 132 0 0
ODI 0 20 7 99 258 139 9 0
CDI 0 6 5 65 250 332 117 1
VCDI 0 0 0 12 91 1381 8918 7948

Date: 2019-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16311 7385 108 385 113 0 0 0
OW 1 235 42 288 198 21 0 0
VODI 0 67 11 186 307 121 0 0
ODI 0 10 5 26 238 217 2 0
CDI 0 2 1 6 175 572 66 7
VCDI 0 0 0 1 25 1202 7515 10017
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16311 7180 104 393 173 9 0 0
OW 1 343 25 201 182 57 0 0
VODI 0 132 29 201 248 179 25 0
ODI 0 25 2 73 207 312 44 0
CDI 0 16 5 16 178 421 143 14
VCDI 0 3 2 8 68 1155 7371 10010

Date: 2019-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15889 7054 100 475 165 4 0 0
OW 0 171 30 363 348 42 0 0
VODI 0 27 8 106 469 137 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 194 277 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 91 546 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 803 6893 11517
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15889 6767 83 435 119 2 0 0
OW 0 364 31 311 310 43 0 0
VODI 0 107 18 175 474 178 6 0
ODI 0 12 2 32 232 308 48 0
CDI 0 2 4 34 111 494 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 784 6731 11517


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