Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-10-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124398 19921 176 540 212 8 0 0
OW 34 798 99 521 392 46 1 0
VODI 0 126 54 542 609 198 7 0
ODI 0 1 1 182 626 447 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 608 1191 293 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 3788 18790 12327
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123738 19460 173 680 434 35 0 0
OW 37 830 104 605 278 94 0 0
VODI 9 199 52 612 563 191 0 0
ODI 0 17 17 207 675 337 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 714 992 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 196 4962 19364 11338
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121909 20641 206 884 285 19 0 0
OW 61 468 71 642 393 50 0 0
VODI 15 55 23 484 808 94 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 97 833 312 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 529 1376 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 139 4110 21396 11085
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119862 20821 206 881 373 126 0 0
OW 57 1042 109 757 492 67 0 0
VODI 15 76 37 520 784 193 0 0
ODI 3 4 0 96 686 435 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 436 1299 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 118 4568 21478 11451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119884 21106 220 1003 442 146 0 0
OW 36 748 95 594 508 71 0 0
VODI 17 89 36 547 693 193 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 106 647 438 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 433 1237 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 166 4603 21455 11451

Date: 2019-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117149 21536 205 1059 479 68 0 0
OW 9 1378 111 797 617 88 0 0
VODI 0 223 50 580 883 301 2 0
ODI 0 25 16 156 595 484 35 0
CDI 0 0 1 51 454 1087 206 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 156 4080 20748 13413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117109 21818 218 1190 575 92 0 0
OW 49 1037 94 629 567 93 0 0
VODI 0 282 49 620 850 356 4 0
ODI 0 25 18 145 595 430 43 0
CDI 0 0 4 49 423 1061 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 174 4076 20718 13413

Date: 2019-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115978 21763 244 1086 282 19 0 0
OW 8 1033 135 960 357 10 0 0
VODI 0 216 38 869 892 60 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 176 1426 374 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 41 602 1576 72 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 161 6444 20130 12082
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115975 21337 257 1373 539 39 0 0
OW 11 1166 92 733 653 123 0 0
VODI 0 446 45 676 1097 395 2 0
ODI 0 54 11 195 576 524 26 0
CDI 0 16 14 103 493 857 324 1
VCDI 0 1 1 54 362 6545 19850 12082

Date: 2019-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112154 23275 271 1374 291 59 0 0
OW 1 1173 118 1139 539 40 0 0
VODI 0 314 60 905 1075 230 0 0
ODI 0 23 9 165 1113 562 2 0
CDI 0 3 1 72 591 1345 99 7
VCDI 0 0 0 18 464 6038 19149 14369
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112152 22698 263 1620 560 89 0 0
OW 3 1403 87 845 675 121 0 0
VODI 0 592 79 768 1156 615 25 0
ODI 0 73 14 264 737 874 54 0
CDI 0 19 14 107 412 899 323 14
VCDI 0 3 2 69 533 5676 18848 14362

Date: 2019-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110275 22265 260 1394 566 56 0 0
OW 0 1155 127 1287 1072 121 0 0
VODI 0 218 49 834 1438 378 5 0
ODI 0 11 4 182 1007 933 29 0
CDI 0 0 1 47 505 1534 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 369 3675 19492 17495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110210 20890 240 1470 839 124 0 0
OW 65 2218 102 1047 804 228 1 0
VODI 0 512 80 913 1651 660 57 0
ODI 0 24 12 215 905 1338 153 0
CDI 0 5 7 88 388 1104 476 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 370 3243 19083 17495


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