Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-10-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 560 3789 59 171 7 0 0 0
OW 0 146 50 350 76 1 0 0
VODI 0 46 19 327 394 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 655 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 292 880 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2818 14968 11104
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 560 3557 55 152 27 0 0 0
OW 0 290 43 311 98 3 0 0
VODI 0 126 21 331 403 46 0 0
ODI 0 8 9 79 487 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 318 603 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 3001 14959 11104

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 726 24 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 38 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 55 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 83 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 64 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 663 926 427
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 726 24 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 1 32 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 50 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 72 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 20 56 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 671 925 427

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1619 2717 34 116 37 0 0 0
OW 0 37 25 200 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 107 164 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 206 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 144 229 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 555 2583 1068
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1619 2641 36 165 96 0 0 0
OW 0 98 21 112 74 4 0 0
VODI 0 16 3 126 113 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 31 149 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 156 158 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 566 2575 1068

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5654 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5654 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5080 2072 5 2 0 0 0 0
OW 22 55 4 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5080 1788 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 22 298 2 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 6 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1657 2914 19 51 0 0 0 0
OW 14 129 5 75 19 0 0 0
VODI 10 31 10 43 79 3 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 22 77 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 89 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1643 2846 13 59 30 1 0 0
OW 17 203 8 32 0 0 0 0
VODI 21 26 13 89 88 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 66 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 50 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5420 852 3 8 0 0 0 0
OW 7 37 2 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5425 889 5 10 0 0 0 0
OW 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9832 1454 6 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 0 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9832 1460 6 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6937 2505 26 268 259 50 0 0
OW 0 5 4 56 54 43 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 96 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 46 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 332 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 186 646 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6937 2510 30 329 393 144 0 0
OW 0 0 0 14 41 83 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 25 125 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 122 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 191 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 593 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4486 1210 6 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 10 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4486 1210 6 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 39 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 27 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6879 1694 6 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6879 1694 6 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20095 112 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20095 112 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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