Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95053 3882 38 197 90 13 0 0
OW 0 60 18 125 119 39 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 68 205 62 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 20 182 118 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 169 535 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2559 5292 99
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94701 4348 44 141 2 0 0 0
OW 0 161 27 182 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 10 176 180 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 60 266 19 0 0
CDI 0 9 4 65 253 380 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 4032 3860 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94968 4580 41 157 11 0 0 0
OW 0 108 18 184 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 4 196 160 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 3 75 246 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 33 394 382 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 68 2647 4315 386
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94666 4533 33 216 70 0 0 0
OW 0 187 13 121 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 7 131 191 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 194 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 135 491 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1429 4909 1297
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94666 4566 37 247 97 0 0 0
OW 0 156 8 95 104 1 0 0
VODI 0 40 8 117 181 34 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 87 187 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 148 469 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1453 4908 1297

Date: 2019-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93441 5040 45 297 333 23 0 0
OW 0 175 11 71 76 69 0 0
VODI 0 70 15 157 87 131 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 121 102 140 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 159 359 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1335 4911 1823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93441 5079 47 301 368 45 0 0
OW 0 127 9 70 58 63 0 0
VODI 0 78 15 132 73 128 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 117 107 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 128 331 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 1346 4902 1823

Date: 2019-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93149 4958 52 335 260 50 0 0
OW 0 48 12 166 72 43 0 0
VODI 0 21 3 113 226 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 241 97 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 110 548 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1643 5431 1436
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93149 4946 54 411 397 144 0 0
OW 0 37 8 98 71 83 0 0
VODI 0 41 3 83 132 128 1 0
ODI 0 3 2 25 177 147 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 111 376 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1562 5379 1436

Date: 2019-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92742 5097 57 341 274 101 0 0
OW 0 68 9 147 82 62 0 0
VODI 0 12 6 119 225 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 200 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 103 425 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 1599 6959 187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92742 5077 57 415 405 212 0 0
OW 0 56 7 78 107 92 0 0
VODI 0 42 4 78 179 139 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 47 119 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 67 396 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1361 6938 187

Date: 2019-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91968 5476 73 324 330 189 0 0
OW 0 36 6 140 68 66 0 0
VODI 0 14 2 92 193 90 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 201 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 88 394 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1739 7311 100
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91968 5470 74 405 429 360 0 0
OW 0 44 4 84 95 108 0 0
VODI 0 12 3 49 163 159 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 128 220 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 76 418 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1380 7245 100


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