Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20498 5829 69 268 53 0 0 0
OW 0 251 22 101 111 3 0 0
VODI 0 63 34 141 164 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 257 116 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 215 317 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 3550 10786 2687
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19495 6342 97 272 84 4 0 0
OW 0 278 29 149 135 9 0 0
VODI 0 73 19 161 246 36 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 261 117 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 163 440 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 3538 11358 2351
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19619 6073 91 275 32 1 0 0
OW 0 69 37 269 67 4 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 202 241 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 370 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 238 497 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 3361 10387 3824
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19241 6270 96 213 56 6 0 0
OW 0 197 36 196 109 10 0 0
VODI 0 25 20 194 216 34 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 252 110 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 271 392 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 2427 9526 5755
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19241 6295 92 270 89 4 0 0
OW 0 169 38 126 113 13 0 0
VODI 0 28 22 214 189 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 271 138 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 264 385 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 2381 9502 5755

Date: 2019-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17842 7337 86 236 52 10 0 0
OW 0 254 46 215 88 14 2 0
VODI 0 21 15 249 223 21 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 264 102 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 269 378 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 1940 9140 6936
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17842 7388 94 289 86 11 0 0
OW 0 181 37 166 85 13 0 0
VODI 0 43 16 225 207 44 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 278 113 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 387 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 1897 9123 6936

Date: 2019-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17864 7365 89 207 43 0 0 0
OW 0 51 36 315 110 1 0 0
VODI 0 7 2 208 286 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 412 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 197 530 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 1864 9176 6972
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17864 7194 90 258 117 0 0 0
OW 0 182 27 191 113 7 0 0
VODI 0 47 9 240 247 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 58 307 111 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 214 363 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 1944 9165 6972

Date: 2019-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17905 7261 79 204 19 0 0 0
OW 0 90 39 322 143 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 11 175 292 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 338 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 187 444 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 88 2022 9444 6635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17905 6966 74 301 102 0 0 0
OW 0 264 27 148 116 0 0 0
VODI 0 120 23 163 240 48 0 0
ODI 0 7 4 91 273 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 37 197 316 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 139 2079 9417 6635

Date: 2019-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17858 6772 73 302 25 0 0 0
OW 0 169 30 222 317 21 0 0
VODI 0 35 21 165 299 72 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 61 235 154 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 219 432 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 1295 9515 7451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17858 6340 57 267 170 18 0 0
OW 0 456 28 128 242 17 0 0
VODI 0 170 32 208 152 94 0 0
ODI 0 12 7 117 222 125 11 0
CDI 0 0 2 37 211 331 97 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 140 1389 9476 7450


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