Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-10-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130640 15412 138 537 145 13 0 0
OW 6 713 80 495 293 42 0 0
VODI 0 140 66 448 661 114 0 0
ODI 0 7 8 217 803 291 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 835 1483 258 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 253 7428 21653 3795
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128798 16532 166 507 106 4 0 0
OW 37 870 107 575 284 9 0 0
VODI 0 191 47 566 764 66 5 0
ODI 0 20 9 200 788 327 8 0
CDI 0 9 4 100 677 1303 347 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 135 8594 20844 4049
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128741 17168 179 595 59 1 0 0
OW 58 310 88 665 193 5 0 0
VODI 0 37 24 669 621 29 0 0
ODI 0 23 3 156 1010 195 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 36 902 1455 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 113 7067 21363 5180
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126474 18496 185 579 137 6 0 0
OW 18 711 88 567 355 10 0 0
VODI 0 95 53 536 694 78 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 193 773 307 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 604 1404 176 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 4806 18613 10984
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126449 18558 190 747 215 4 0 0
OW 43 646 77 390 325 14 0 0
VODI 0 97 59 534 658 105 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 200 762 338 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 630 1369 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 4781 18565 10984

Date: 2019-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123677 19946 170 608 393 33 0 0
OW 23 893 103 543 271 83 2 0
VODI 1 177 62 642 542 178 9 0
ODI 0 11 9 252 629 357 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 684 1120 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 120 4271 18423 12671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123645 19918 192 707 469 56 0 0
OW 46 868 76 454 215 76 0 0
VODI 10 221 66 563 551 192 8 0
ODI 0 20 8 286 626 364 15 0
CDI 0 0 2 95 600 1100 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 178 4254 18382 12671

Date: 2019-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123067 20045 189 678 303 50 0 0
OW 43 434 91 737 228 44 0 0
VODI 10 85 31 555 762 76 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 96 1068 229 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 525 1651 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 4265 19123 12599
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123058 19433 183 781 546 145 0 0
OW 41 913 75 511 221 90 0 0
VODI 21 211 43 602 665 208 1 0
ODI 0 8 10 139 784 364 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 529 1097 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 177 4411 19052 12599

Date: 2019-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121315 20490 192 782 322 101 0 0
OW 54 749 103 705 387 66 0 0
VODI 15 76 29 435 780 173 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 91 774 352 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 430 1329 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 148 4417 21399 11258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121332 19861 185 937 569 212 0 0
OW 32 1014 61 375 348 101 0 0
VODI 20 438 66 403 667 298 0 0
ODI 0 10 11 228 619 530 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 69 396 1177 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 242 4120 21322 11258

Date: 2019-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118686 20908 219 922 416 189 0 0
OW 55 1222 102 736 631 96 0 0
VODI 0 160 44 483 816 295 0 0
ODI 0 14 5 108 611 525 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 410 1224 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 125 3756 21631 12474
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118712 20120 198 1025 716 380 0 0
OW 29 1534 62 415 488 175 0 0
VODI 0 620 89 480 559 407 0 0
ODI 0 29 16 272 525 575 30 0
CDI 0 1 5 67 477 1126 261 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 244 3422 21504 12473


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