Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16466 5168 37 107 3 0 0 0
OW 0 613 26 208 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 43 412 239 67 0 0
ODI 0 16 5 114 607 141 16 0
CDI 0 0 1 29 400 749 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 762 3151 2378
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16326 4961 27 84 1 0 0 0
OW 0 751 33 266 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 203 22 286 383 64 0 0
ODI 0 32 21 112 454 300 8 0
CDI 0 0 2 63 196 764 190 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 540 3857 2053
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15743 5757 48 123 4 0 0 0
OW 0 99 40 313 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 12 233 299 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 616 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 242 1071 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 643 3495 3124
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15432 5574 27 90 2 0 0 0
OW 1 283 44 324 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 22 223 319 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 99 423 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 511 667 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 154 1383 4891 1440
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15433 5769 47 205 9 0 0 0
OW 0 94 32 258 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 9 186 297 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 6 81 445 203 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 464 698 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 151 1223 4870 1440

Date: 2019-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14908 5704 23 84 2 0 0 0
OW 15 427 48 274 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 20 232 329 1 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 109 332 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 368 532 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 149 1161 5190 1800
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14916 5937 41 179 19 0 0 0
OW 7 215 33 230 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 15 183 304 4 0 0
ODI 0 15 6 103 323 244 30 0
CDI 0 0 1 36 347 469 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 1078 5086 1800

Date: 2019-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14623 6035 45 119 24 0 0 0
OW 54 109 45 247 65 3 0 0
VODI 0 1 7 248 251 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 462 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 152 726 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 571 6574 1492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14663 5894 41 147 76 6 0 0
OW 14 229 39 209 146 19 0 0
VODI 0 22 17 221 282 92 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 237 264 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 196 435 459 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 602 6124 1492

Date: 2019-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12987 7628 59 116 0 0 0 0
OW 18 272 40 237 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 29 276 197 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 393 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 359 433 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 1421 3821 3584
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13005 7427 48 134 13 0 0 0
OW 0 354 30 173 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 130 35 236 322 16 0 0
ODI 0 10 15 119 247 182 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 272 667 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 1011 3785 3584

Date: 2019-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12379 7629 44 98 15 0 0 0
OW 34 367 47 206 170 10 0 0
VODI 0 46 25 213 223 97 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 248 182 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 187 396 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 484 4626 4183
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12397 7355 35 122 96 6 0 0
OW 16 516 37 100 56 47 0 0
VODI 0 158 34 218 235 170 32 0
ODI 0 13 7 87 182 167 68 0
CDI 0 0 3 34 225 284 446 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 63 495 4194 4183


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