Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-09-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22448 4779 41 80 24 5 0 0
OW 0 697 39 195 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 406 40 426 327 68 8 0
ODI 0 30 17 214 606 325 37 0
CDI 0 0 1 75 363 983 1334 3
VCDI 0 0 0 1 36 217 6621 5383
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22160 4851 45 100 38 11 0 0
OW 0 665 44 112 73 6 0 0
VODI 0 301 36 368 411 88 7 0
ODI 0 25 10 194 358 478 91 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 266 695 975 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 380 5785 7251
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21927 5297 72 195 53 19 0 0
OW 0 146 34 218 89 11 0 0
VODI 0 20 8 321 301 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 626 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 305 1032 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 812 8486 5574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21817 4995 74 243 64 8 0 0
OW 0 164 37 234 119 11 0 0
VODI 0 36 10 164 300 53 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 51 569 135 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 209 999 111 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2915 8838 3701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21817 5077 85 256 81 8 0 0
OW 0 105 30 228 90 12 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 162 292 44 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 49 525 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 270 858 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 3107 8891 3702

Date: 2019-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21083 5463 85 240 59 6 0 0
OW 0 156 33 229 165 14 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 135 336 49 4 0
ODI 0 7 3 41 322 185 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 258 795 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1501 8621 5910
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21083 5501 101 307 70 7 0 0
OW 0 127 17 180 163 15 0 0
VODI 0 7 9 119 311 41 5 0
ODI 0 6 3 45 328 105 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 266 746 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1636 8670 5910

Date: 2019-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20962 5651 77 205 36 4 0 0
OW 0 75 29 196 71 12 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 135 251 23 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 378 109 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 111 945 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1669 10914 3869
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20962 5455 82 328 107 9 0 0
OW 0 172 9 92 158 45 1 0
VODI 0 78 12 59 208 128 13 0
ODI 0 23 5 43 189 159 38 0
CDI 0 0 1 30 137 485 246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 1936 10728 3869

Date: 2019-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20286 6137 78 266 53 1 0 0
OW 0 115 37 124 138 9 0 0
VODI 0 12 7 150 194 64 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 264 145 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 145 613 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 2372 11083 3287
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20286 5859 84 296 200 32 0 0
OW 0 217 16 121 100 85 3 0
VODI 0 123 6 56 162 132 49 0
ODI 0 43 8 90 136 119 75 0
CDI 0 22 7 31 126 177 261 0
VCDI 0 0 1 20 129 2659 10848 3287

Date: 2019-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20498 5829 69 268 53 0 0 0
OW 0 251 22 101 111 3 0 0
VODI 0 63 34 141 164 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 257 116 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 215 317 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 3550 10786 2687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20498 5600 74 279 170 21 0 0
OW 0 280 23 122 100 70 5 0
VODI 0 138 4 74 161 124 42 0
ODI 0 68 11 41 138 118 100 0
CDI 0 43 5 38 145 141 233 0
VCDI 0 14 8 31 127 3564 10569 2687


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