Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-09-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134741 13020 76 350 103 5 0 0
OW 0 1672 79 413 218 28 0 0
VODI 0 964 103 890 900 483 8 0
ODI 0 119 48 577 1369 1473 264 0
CDI 0 20 7 166 889 2108 3104 22
VCDI 0 0 0 1 50 1783 12975 8020
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134111 13278 65 232 52 11 0 0
OW 0 1764 88 397 249 8 0 0
VODI 0 930 77 810 1029 382 41 0
ODI 0 192 59 570 1047 1182 690 0
CDI 0 30 7 139 1055 1625 2507 104
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 2826 11261 10204
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134320 14433 127 360 57 19 0 0
OW 0 611 113 605 166 11 0 0
VODI 0 92 34 911 731 49 0 0
ODI 0 4 6 165 1633 397 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 958 2655 488 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 3727 15542 8737
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134902 13303 117 406 67 8 0 0
OW 0 897 105 589 181 11 0 0
VODI 0 161 59 816 687 54 0 0
ODI 0 28 8 260 1523 231 1 0
CDI 0 0 2 43 1192 2235 290 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 6270 16331 6248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134902 13472 134 452 102 8 0 0
OW 0 689 88 520 142 12 0 0
VODI 0 194 58 823 639 46 0 0
ODI 0 34 9 274 1418 151 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 45 1324 1985 190 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 6607 16432 6249

Date: 2019-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 133048 14075 132 547 245 20 0 0
OW 0 980 82 536 383 29 0 0
VODI 0 233 51 583 760 189 7 0
ODI 0 47 18 212 1023 461 96 0
CDI 0 1 3 88 655 2089 345 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 3984 17454 8641
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 133048 14000 152 637 279 23 0 0
OW 0 1030 56 460 338 29 0 0
VODI 0 255 51 569 775 133 5 0
ODI 0 51 25 209 979 357 72 0
CDI 0 0 2 91 688 2030 275 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 4200 17550 8641

Date: 2019-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 132881 14582 136 514 170 43 0 0
OW 0 334 105 516 164 39 0 0
VODI 0 28 21 567 616 55 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 120 1412 190 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 458 2843 153 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 4637 20067 6368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 132880 13445 133 673 325 72 0 0
OW 1 970 45 288 298 84 1 0
VODI 0 464 57 414 858 258 13 0
ODI 0 62 24 220 618 649 38 0
CDI 0 3 3 129 610 1559 408 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 122 5185 19768 6368

Date: 2019-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 129773 16948 160 669 121 1 0 0
OW 0 310 100 644 254 9 0 0
VODI 0 33 27 461 738 64 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 159 1022 273 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 802 1983 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 5357 21115 5716
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 129773 15722 144 736 366 32 0 0
OW 0 928 45 329 277 85 3 0
VODI 0 537 59 512 844 175 49 0
ODI 0 79 24 226 657 629 75 0
CDI 0 25 14 128 669 1130 401 0
VCDI 0 0 1 20 255 5636 20747 5716

Date: 2019-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 130640 15412 138 537 145 13 0 0
OW 6 713 80 495 293 42 0 0
VODI 0 140 66 448 661 114 0 0
ODI 0 7 8 217 803 291 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 835 1483 258 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 253 7428 21653 3795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 130640 14465 125 581 397 97 0 0
OW 6 970 57 295 266 123 9 0
VODI 0 610 46 469 615 267 59 0
ODI 0 149 32 156 689 640 129 0
CDI 0 64 24 186 564 977 432 0
VCDI 0 14 8 63 459 7267 21303 3795


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