Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-09-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23032 4857 37 131 41 0 0 0
OW 0 531 39 266 68 2 0 0
VODI 0 243 48 615 310 38 0 0
ODI 0 26 9 401 1334 131 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 1021 2889 925 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1362 6907 565
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22884 4841 35 100 55 0 0 0
OW 0 634 46 297 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 275 46 595 324 31 0 0
ODI 0 12 4 294 1160 251 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 616 2365 569 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2793 7569 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22420 5080 35 82 29 0 0 0
OW 0 773 32 234 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 378 44 576 245 40 0 0
ODI 0 51 17 310 801 321 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 97 572 1715 960 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 347 7995 2691
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22044 5266 35 78 27 4 0 0
OW 0 719 44 221 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 386 42 453 342 68 0 0
ODI 0 26 13 222 678 334 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 371 1145 1443 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 295 5758 5661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22044 5632 45 140 39 4 0 0
OW 0 388 37 208 30 11 0 0
VODI 0 300 29 365 342 73 0 0
ODI 0 77 23 270 578 299 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 450 1011 1263 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 448 5968 5662

Date: 2019-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22603 4518 41 98 26 9 0 0
OW 0 662 36 181 55 2 0 0
VODI 0 399 35 384 320 95 21 0
ODI 0 44 9 201 434 395 83 0
CDI 0 0 3 77 305 857 1119 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 217 6051 6557
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22603 4836 55 174 46 13 0 0
OW 0 383 23 202 64 11 0 0
VODI 0 317 27 280 293 153 52 0
ODI 0 87 17 201 335 388 56 0
CDI 0 0 2 84 407 711 909 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 299 6257 6557

Date: 2019-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21821 5627 65 118 30 10 0 0
OW 0 233 45 169 37 6 0 0
VODI 0 81 24 419 213 8 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 62 724 108 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 197 1133 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 833 7727 6050
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21821 5294 53 131 58 16 0 0
OW 0 441 32 167 63 15 0 0
VODI 0 148 41 314 379 107 14 0
ODI 0 61 8 142 422 410 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 270 712 367 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 838 7406 6050

Date: 2019-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21887 5113 73 199 54 17 0 0
OW 0 201 41 213 104 11 0 0
VODI 0 35 8 242 285 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 611 125 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 1083 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1844 9322 3995
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21887 4668 53 145 96 36 0 0
OW 0 542 38 138 55 26 0 0
VODI 0 131 27 257 284 109 15 0
ODI 0 8 4 164 538 338 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 297 871 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1727 9177 3995

Date: 2019-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21042 5599 88 243 69 7 0 0
OW 0 153 32 232 153 13 0 0
VODI 0 31 10 141 316 72 2 0
ODI 0 7 2 34 444 161 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 236 896 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2159 8701 4879
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21041 5221 75 195 94 30 0 0
OW 1 473 37 227 62 42 8 0
VODI 0 87 18 199 412 78 32 0
ODI 0 9 2 30 435 272 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 211 1077 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 1809 8535 4879


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