Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-09-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 136006 13341 62 159 43 0 0 0
OW 0 1462 113 513 83 2 0 0
VODI 0 499 122 2099 652 40 0 0
ODI 0 53 18 661 3633 303 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 69 1865 6026 2697 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3162 12669 687
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134912 14193 62 145 55 0 0 0
OW 0 1695 112 482 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 660 124 1788 738 32 0 0
ODI 0 75 10 653 3130 555 0 0
CDI 0 15 4 180 1384 4637 2722 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 5208 13351 86
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135553 13215 48 102 30 0 0 0
OW 0 1861 82 413 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 859 118 1269 756 290 1 0
ODI 0 143 36 706 1862 913 417 0
CDI 0 19 9 263 1295 3145 2993 89
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1646 13779 5075
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134618 13469 62 315 58 4 0 0
OW 0 1697 78 397 207 2 0 0
VODI 0 889 116 1021 1053 253 0 0
ODI 0 111 31 640 1803 1271 58 0
CDI 0 15 8 164 1075 2972 2470 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 36 1739 13029 7378
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134618 14247 85 465 104 4 0 0
OW 0 1064 76 352 214 11 0 0
VODI 0 701 87 938 1198 212 0 0
ODI 0 156 40 627 1525 1400 51 0
CDI 0 13 7 158 1140 2702 2099 4
VCDI 0 0 0 1 51 1912 13407 7379

Date: 2019-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134074 13451 74 314 106 13 0 0
OW 0 1693 82 422 218 32 0 0
VODI 0 1028 87 819 973 368 48 0
ODI 0 166 56 620 1211 1234 539 0
CDI 0 22 8 181 899 2086 2687 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 2004 12286 9194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134074 14262 113 520 195 30 0 0
OW 0 1049 57 396 225 42 0 0
VODI 0 822 73 680 947 518 102 0
ODI 0 211 59 564 1037 1103 630 0
CDI 0 16 5 196 1009 1913 2246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 2131 12582 9213

Date: 2019-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134411 14404 102 259 46 10 0 0
OW 0 806 136 518 79 6 0 0
VODI 0 168 59 1117 619 10 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 177 1909 253 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 533 3113 475 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 2990 15361 9466
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134411 13321 102 440 239 25 0 0
OW 0 1235 59 357 217 61 0 0
VODI 0 606 91 691 830 570 43 0
ODI 0 198 42 444 1008 1067 902 0
CDI 0 24 6 142 835 1676 1900 87
VCDI 0 0 0 0 66 2983 12991 9379

Date: 2019-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134383 14080 124 381 72 17 0 0
OW 0 808 108 577 175 11 0 0
VODI 0 125 51 913 662 30 0 0
ODI 0 14 7 262 1574 255 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 839 2839 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 4553 17205 6663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134302 12620 106 442 272 43 0 0
OW 81 1345 56 313 214 60 0 0
VODI 0 854 81 705 737 356 15 0
ODI 0 180 40 536 1203 1337 230 0
CDI 0 28 6 147 830 1790 1564 0
VCDI 0 0 1 15 71 4119 15686 6663

Date: 2019-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 133388 14215 152 561 129 7 0 0
OW 0 947 74 569 303 13 0 0
VODI 0 202 61 687 725 142 2 0
ODI 0 42 11 216 1260 373 27 0
CDI 0 0 3 62 831 2252 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 5035 17053 7428
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 133248 12798 132 580 334 52 0 0
OW 140 1249 52 357 215 143 13 0
VODI 0 1061 59 508 788 408 65 0
ODI 0 238 49 478 1057 1022 127 0
CDI 0 55 6 147 767 2268 809 0
VCDI 0 5 3 25 100 3929 16333 7428


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