Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-09-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96316 3518 33 76 0 0 0 0
OW 0 142 16 187 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 15 196 159 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 56 335 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 187 2964 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3193 1566 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96493 2983 35 207 26 0 0 0
OW 0 101 18 154 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 3 129 244 4 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 36 311 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 171 2030 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2720 2312 746
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96234 3346 24 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 122 14 123 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 16 178 151 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 79 319 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 216 2578 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 761 4145 524
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96172 3529 15 28 3 0 0 0
OW 0 162 25 109 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 86 18 209 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 135 276 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 274 1640 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1279 4219 553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96172 3541 15 29 2 0 0 0
OW 0 145 25 116 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 19 211 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 143 290 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 239 1686 171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1210 4215 553

Date: 2019-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95865 3960 17 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 234 18 79 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 26 245 63 2 0 0
ODI 0 41 7 172 209 10 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 84 629 1034 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 2165 3884 136
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95865 3996 20 30 1 0 0 0
OW 0 192 16 97 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 124 24 245 71 3 0 0
ODI 0 49 10 171 232 9 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 72 593 1146 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 2053 3873 136

Date: 2019-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96688 3222 17 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 361 10 59 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 242 27 188 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 75 11 208 128 1 0 0
CDI 0 33 4 156 483 660 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1823 4190 220
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96688 3263 18 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 289 13 64 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 252 17 187 35 1 0 0
ODI 0 98 16 208 145 0 0 0
CDI 0 31 5 152 471 734 220 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1749 4189 220

Date: 2019-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96858 2834 10 20 1 0 0 0
OW 0 341 8 75 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 272 16 168 50 3 0 0
ODI 0 88 13 208 131 8 0 0
CDI 0 17 7 103 465 405 259 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1216 5109 404
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96858 2931 13 31 1 0 0 0
OW 0 301 9 82 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 244 13 184 66 6 0 0
ODI 0 73 16 192 180 7 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 85 409 556 307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1063 5061 404

Date: 2019-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95677 3525 19 214 78 0 0 0
OW 0 266 8 62 45 27 0 0
VODI 0 251 12 76 70 78 0 0
ODI 0 73 14 130 122 108 0 0
CDI 0 20 6 83 364 607 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1566 5124 297
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95677 3649 28 283 101 12 0 0
OW 0 197 3 32 80 35 0 0
VODI 0 242 10 77 83 131 0 0
ODI 0 44 15 127 124 117 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 46 305 614 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1477 5147 297


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