Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-09-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21825 5398 48 151 45 0 0 0
OW 0 327 55 494 227 5 0 0
VODI 0 57 23 553 716 470 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 942 1101 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 72 4611 3420 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3059 2100 4
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22586 4943 23 76 25 0 0 0
OW 0 592 55 432 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 159 41 798 850 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 203 1281 666 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 336 4455 2396 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2651 2946 291
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23186 4755 37 103 32 0 0 0
OW 0 384 54 362 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 26 915 408 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 1784 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 661 5126 1052 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2676 3832 127
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22995 4972 37 85 36 0 0 0
OW 0 491 37 327 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 186 39 768 321 2 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 380 1481 111 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 854 3603 1207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1509 6356 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22995 5125 42 158 34 0 0 0
OW 0 303 37 306 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 202 30 654 269 2 0 0
ODI 0 30 9 436 1400 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 976 3550 1039 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1568 6524 5

Date: 2019-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22906 4924 33 120 42 0 0 0
OW 0 588 36 235 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 291 40 601 298 35 0 0
ODI 0 32 12 323 1253 180 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 1123 2331 482 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1681 7640 486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22906 5089 42 189 83 0 0 0
OW 0 374 22 206 63 5 0 0
VODI 0 320 40 526 248 35 0 0
ODI 0 52 17 364 1185 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 1233 2380 212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1706 7910 486

Date: 2019-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22983 4591 42 91 35 0 0 0
OW 0 716 38 264 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 324 46 589 280 27 0 0
ODI 0 25 11 297 1014 277 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 680 2171 530 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1858 8320 539
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22983 4879 52 142 43 0 0 0
OW 0 397 24 225 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 314 45 529 287 27 0 0
ODI 0 66 16 341 883 147 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 809 1895 488 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 2264 8361 540

Date: 2019-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22124 5293 33 76 31 0 0 0
OW 0 763 40 215 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 348 52 480 347 52 0 0
ODI 0 22 11 244 674 427 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 344 1164 1587 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 275 7070 4051
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22124 5595 44 148 35 0 0 0
OW 0 378 28 193 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 387 45 366 373 64 0 0
ODI 0 66 19 341 533 358 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 421 1304 1210 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 192 7455 4056

Date: 2019-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22448 4779 41 80 24 5 0 0
OW 0 697 39 195 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 406 40 426 327 68 8 0
ODI 0 30 17 214 606 325 37 0
CDI 0 0 1 75 363 983 1334 3
VCDI 0 0 0 1 36 217 6621 5383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22448 4993 43 116 72 5 0 0
OW 0 422 30 176 129 5 0 0
VODI 0 444 43 383 326 139 11 0
ODI 0 53 22 273 485 390 73 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 379 919 993 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 140 6923 5386


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