Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-09-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135052 13811 92 241 45 0 0 0
OW 0 1091 134 925 236 5 0 0
VODI 0 180 88 2313 1263 470 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 304 3695 1485 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 639 11076 3453 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6666 3675 4
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135677 12987 69 292 51 0 0 0
OW 0 1389 138 868 180 0 0 0
VODI 0 299 87 2067 1798 6 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 308 3648 1304 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 711 9431 2979 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6179 5522 1037
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135852 13587 75 166 32 0 0 0
OW 0 985 140 764 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 107 67 2327 879 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 309 4074 614 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1052 10884 1570 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4055 8796 651
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135179 14306 68 127 39 0 0 0
OW 0 1291 129 616 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 376 103 2272 661 2 0 0
ODI 0 16 7 637 3927 205 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 1534 7274 2840 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 2790 11948 586
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135179 14521 80 209 36 0 0 0
OW 0 984 112 565 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 446 105 2131 731 2 0 0
ODI 0 38 10 759 3857 307 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1520 7159 2357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 2803 12431 586

Date: 2019-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134656 14576 63 167 42 0 0 0
OW 0 1555 110 431 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 637 127 1953 592 37 0 0
ODI 0 73 19 688 3495 313 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 162 2017 5431 1982 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 3997 13188 622
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134656 14893 82 235 84 0 0 0
OW 0 1084 71 376 76 5 0 0
VODI 0 764 141 1858 615 38 0 0
ODI 0 101 27 788 3418 507 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 144 2058 5164 1633 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 4064 13537 622

Date: 2019-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135875 13045 65 129 35 0 0 0
OW 0 1754 103 489 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 724 121 1351 958 149 0 0
ODI 0 100 22 678 2259 1169 30 0
CDI 0 33 4 235 1361 3783 2995 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 3681 13541 2253
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135875 13469 87 196 43 0 0 0
OW 0 1110 67 386 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 882 122 1268 930 62 0 0
ODI 0 164 34 797 2098 1273 76 0
CDI 0 31 5 235 1573 3434 2755 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 4013 13735 2259

Date: 2019-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135332 13198 60 126 33 0 0 0
OW 0 1763 80 436 87 2 0 0
VODI 0 837 128 1206 976 142 0 0
ODI 0 111 25 722 1844 1254 57 0
CDI 0 17 7 165 1000 2916 2948 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1534 14505 5508
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 135332 13613 80 202 36 0 0 0
OW 0 1086 58 372 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 1065 116 1019 904 103 0 0
ODI 0 159 43 915 1680 1210 45 0
CDI 0 3 3 147 1257 3160 2454 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1375 15011 5513

Date: 2019-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134741 13020 76 350 103 5 0 0
OW 0 1672 79 413 218 28 0 0
VODI 0 964 103 890 900 483 8 0
ODI 0 119 48 577 1369 1473 264 0
CDI 0 20 7 166 889 2108 3104 22
VCDI 0 0 0 1 50 1783 12975 8020
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 134741 13333 86 455 173 17 0 0
OW 0 1047 55 305 245 40 0 0
VODI 0 1090 89 782 883 363 11 0
ODI 0 278 53 573 1182 1419 183 0
CDI 0 47 30 282 1026 2297 2316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1744 13841 8042


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