Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-09-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95679 3767 24 81 25 0 0 0
OW 0 249 32 252 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 4 210 345 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 434 228 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 227 2777 1230 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 793 2334 200
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94950 4651 18 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 385 40 159 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 147 25 245 166 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 93 407 119 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 8 424 2945 828 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1262 2079 52
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96256 3917 9 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 224 31 89 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 22 263 85 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 80 345 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 186 3141 482 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1217 2546 50
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96673 3277 16 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 191 22 151 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 17 220 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 2 62 344 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 199 3214 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2570 1816 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96673 3365 20 77 2 0 0 0
OW 0 113 22 168 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 13 196 127 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 52 340 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 181 3097 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2644 1803 0

Date: 2019-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96230 3330 37 234 14 0 0 0
OW 0 115 18 183 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 10 167 196 1 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 45 319 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 205 2518 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3313 1963 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96230 3390 43 301 19 0 0 0
OW 0 66 14 153 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 8 131 200 7 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 45 303 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 199 2556 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3248 1957 0

Date: 2019-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96268 3230 31 121 0 0 0 0
OW 0 77 13 150 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 8 140 185 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 52 403 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 146 2755 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1575 3298 295
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96268 3262 35 227 26 0 0 0
OW 0 57 10 110 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 6 82 261 3 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 42 235 113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 115 1676 275 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2555 3295 295

Date: 2019-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96326 3327 23 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 145 22 117 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 21 207 123 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 134 259 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 341 1956 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1295 3232 1273
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96326 3414 31 100 6 0 0 0
OW 0 77 21 141 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 14 187 154 14 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 77 242 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 25 274 1394 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1782 3335 1273

Date: 2019-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96340 3426 10 18 2 0 0 0
OW 0 216 22 83 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 21 242 77 2 0 0
ODI 0 27 9 113 279 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 39 557 1096 216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1749 4313 122
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96340 3462 9 26 1 0 0 0
OW 0 172 20 103 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 106 29 209 96 2 0 0
ODI 0 23 3 104 260 16 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 53 527 796 238 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 2042 4291 122


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