Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-09-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20277 6309 79 175 1 0 0 0
OW 0 462 51 447 46 3 0 0
VODI 0 69 38 1022 512 49 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 663 2287 928 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1737 4339 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 3542 2105 188
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20892 5733 54 137 7 0 0 0
OW 0 513 56 445 40 5 0 0
VODI 0 116 38 1035 458 36 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 620 2367 713 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 1848 4870 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 3989 1556 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21913 5304 34 66 22 0 0 0
OW 0 466 73 403 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 99 30 1159 419 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 137 2048 329 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 501 7354 1181 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2312 1988 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21875 5343 44 138 39 0 0 0
OW 0 305 61 513 204 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 22 498 997 149 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 1225 951 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 5269 3045 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 2958 1750 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21875 5385 71 318 112 0 0 0
OW 0 267 37 348 262 3 0 0
VODI 0 61 18 453 957 173 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 75 1066 1037 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 304 5058 2907 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 3056 1843 5

Date: 2019-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22126 5262 29 95 27 0 0 0
OW 0 493 61 429 144 0 0 0
VODI 0 127 30 611 1020 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 141 960 1045 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 104 4981 2534 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3255 2295 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22126 5361 49 218 68 0 0 0
OW 0 396 44 349 213 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 26 525 938 107 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 177 880 1091 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 155 4876 2361 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3277 2426 0

Date: 2019-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22478 5349 39 79 29 0 0 0
OW 0 397 68 315 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 16 948 385 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 2037 117 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 449 6262 622 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2624 3453 92
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22478 5196 49 200 52 0 0 0
OW 0 395 44 413 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 171 30 550 1002 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 234 1284 695 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 465 5125 1322 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3163 2747 92

Date: 2019-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22781 5197 37 102 32 0 0 0
OW 0 420 54 346 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 25 881 356 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 245 1671 118 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 727 3904 1704 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2478 4507 156
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22781 4950 38 223 55 0 0 0
OW 0 461 33 442 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 265 36 612 871 33 0 0
ODI 0 30 9 273 1229 572 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 572 3154 2046 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2741 4165 156

Date: 2019-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23032 4857 37 131 41 0 0 0
OW 0 531 39 266 68 2 0 0
VODI 0 243 48 615 310 38 0 0
ODI 0 26 9 401 1334 131 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 1021 2889 925 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1362 6907 565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23032 4694 40 188 64 0 0 0
OW 0 547 38 302 80 16 0 0
VODI 0 316 37 611 833 59 0 0
ODI 0 100 17 306 1034 637 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 36 755 2353 1389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1357 6443 565


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